If you had told me at the start of the 2022-23 season that the Utah Jazz would be one of the most profitable teams on the NBA odds board, I would have nodded my head in agreement. The Jazz were a classic “buy low” team after shipping off talented, yet limited players in Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell during the offseason.
If you had told me the Utah Jazz (10-4 SU and ATS) would be jockeying for first place in the Western Conference standings, I would have asked you what kind of Jazz cigarettes you’d been smoking. But that’s exactly where we are heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at Wells Fargo Center
Speaking of whom, Philadelphia looked like a reasonable “fade” candidate as they prepared for the new season – and so it came to pass. The Sixers (6-7 SU and ATS) have yet to rise above the .500 mark this year, partly because of James Harden’s foot injury, but also a lack of chemistry in general.
Looking for Value
FiveThirtyEight project Philadelphia to win by 2.5 points; as a rule of thumb, we want at least a 2-point gap between the projections and the actual basketball odds before we open up those wallets and/or purses.
That 220.5-point total at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has even less value if we’re reading the tea leaves correctly here at the home office.
We need more things to bet on. Maybe we can take that slight lean toward Utah and extrapolate a sharp NBA prop bet from there. Join us, won’t you?
Who Has the Rest Advantage?
Both teams will be playing on zero days of rest. Saturday saw the Jazz lose 121-112 to the Washington Wizards as 4-point road faves, snapping Utah’s four-game winning streak in the process. Philadelphia (-3 at home) have just beaten the Atlanta Hawks 121-109 as I write this.
The Sixers should be flat-tired after running up and down the court with the Hawks (No. 6 overall in pace) Saturday night. That’s a much faster pace than the Wizards (No. 25) throw at you, but at least Philadelphia didn’t have to travel between games as the Jazz did.
Who’s More Vulnerable?
We’ll call it a wash as far as rest is concerned – although the Sixers are more vulnerable to breaking down in this case. They have both Harden and De’Anthony Melton (back) on the shelf, while the Jazz have zero players on the injured list.
Several other Sixers, including Joel Embiid, have only recently made it back to the court. It’s almost enough of a betting angle to fire a single unit at Utah +3.5, but no, let’s make this one a recreational-sized wager. Save the big bets for the big margins.
What Happened to Our Melton Prop?
Oh yeah, we had Melton in Saturday’s NBA player props. The answer: No action. And the props market is a bit thin for Sunday’s game as we go to press. However, the range of projections for this matchup is pretty tight, and Bovada has these odds available for their “Winning Margin” prop:
- 76ers by 1-2 points: +1100
- 76ers by 3-6 points: +550
That first bet at +1100 caught my eye. There’s a smaller window for that prop to squeeze through, but 1-2 points is very close to the projections. Even the Simple Rating System at Pro Basketball Reference has this one falling right in that range:
- Utah Jazz: Plus-4.38 SRS
- Philadelphia 76ers: Plus-2.32 SRS
Give Philadelphia 2.63 points for home-court advantage, as per Jeff Sagarin’s numbers at The USA Today, and you get... let’s see, carry the one... the Sixers winning by about a half-point. Okay, that’s less than 1-2 points, but if Philly wins Sunday, it has to be by at least a point.
We don’t want to put too much weight behind those SRS numbers anyway, not when we’re less than one month into the regular season. But this does give us some added confidence in the overall projections.
The Game Plan
Here’s the plan: Let’s make it three suitably small bets for this game, one on the Jazz at +3.5, and one each on the Winning Margin props I’ve quoted in this article. Enjoy the game, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Utah +3.5 (-110) at Bovada
NBA Prop Pick: 76ers to Win by 1-2 points (+1100) at Bovada
NBA Prop Pick: 76ers to Win by 3-6 points (+550) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.