It’s a potential NBA Finals preview that highlights Monday’s NBA slate as the thinned-out Miami Heat visit the Golden State Warriors. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, January 03, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center
NBA TV has this potential NBA Finals preview between the Heat and Warriors as part of a doubleheader. The first game on the network is Grizzlies-Nets. And while I doubt Miami wins the Eastern Conference, at full strength it certainly could. The Heat are currently +575 third favorites at BMR’s top-rated books to take the East behind Brooklyn (+140) and Milwaukee (+300). Golden State has the best record in the NBA and is a +175 favorite to capture the West.
This is the first meeting of the season between the Heat and Warriors – the Dubs will visit south Florida on March 23. Last year, they split with each winning at home. Golden State leads all-time 33-32 and 20-13 at home. The Heat are 5-1 against the spread on the NBA odds in the past six meetings.
Heat in 2nd of Back-To-Back
Miami had a five-game winning streak end Sunday in a 115-113 loss at Sacramento – perhaps the Dubs were looking ahead to this one a bit. Miami was missing 12 players due to various injuries and COVID protocols, including the likes of Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, and P.J. Tucker who all usually start. Ömer Yurtseven had the game of his life in the loss with 22 points and 16 rebounds.
Yurtseven has pulled down double-figure rebounds in eight straight games, the longest such streak by a Heat rookie in franchise history. He has probably earned playing time even with the team back to full strength. Tyler Herro also had 22 points in the loss and Jimmy Butler 21, but Butler missed a shot late to tie.
The Heat took a whopping 27 more shots than the Kings because they dominated on the glass with 49 rebounds, 18 offensively. However, Miami shot just 27.3% from deep and was limited to six fast-break points. It’s possible the Heat get a few guys back for this game, namely Max Strus and KZ Okpala.
Miami is holding teams to 103.9 points this season, the third-lowest in the NBA, and is 12-1 when holding teams under 100 points. The Heat are 13-0 when shooting at least 40% from three-point range and 8-0 when shooting at least 50% from the field overall. The Heat are 7-2 ATS on the NBA picks in their past nine in the second of a back-to-back.
Warriors Will Get Green Back
Golden State comes off a big 123-116 win at Utah on Saturday in what might have been a Western Conference Finals preview. The Warriors outscored the Jazz by 12 in the fourth quarter. Stephen Curry had 28 points and 9 assists, while Andrew Wiggins had 25 points and Otto Porter Jr. 20. Curry made a three-pointer in the 158th straight game, breaking his own NBA record. I think it’s fair to say that’s getting much higher barring injury.
All-Star Draymond Green was out in the COVID protocols but has been cleared and should start Monday, which would presumably put Porter back in a bench role. Green is averaging 8.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.5 assists this season, but his value goes beyond numbers. Jordan Poole returned from protocols on Saturday and had 10 points. Damion Lee (8.4 ppg) is also expected to return from them Monday.
The Warriors lead the NBA in defensive rating (102.1) and are tied for fourth in offensive rating (112.0). Want to know about good coaching? Teams that perform well out of halftime. No club is better than the Dubs under Steve Kerr.
In the third quarter this season, the Warriors are outscoring opponents by 4.2 points per game, outrebounding then 12.3-9.6 and outshooting them 48.3% to 40.8. The Warriors also have a +4.2 margin in the fourth quarter, the highest for any team in any quarter this season.
Keep in mind that this club will only get better when injury rehabbing Klay Thompson and James Wiseman make their season debuts. Thompson is very close and it’s not impossible that it’s Monday. Thompson said he wants to debut at home for the fans. Golden State isn’t home again until Jan. 9.
Simulations I have run have the Warriors winning by around 7 so we will take the points. Like the under perhaps even better because both are so good defensively.
NBA Pick: Under 219 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.