So far the Miami Heat have completely dominated the Atlanta Hawks in the first two games of their playoff matchup. Atlanta is a much different team at home and they will hope Trae Young can find his game with the crowd behind him. Miami will hope their Jimmy Butler can continue his dominant play on the road as they look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, April 22, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
It's Now or Never for Atlanta
Betting on sports is as much about math as it is about trends and matchups. The math is simple for the Hawks; teams that have taken a 2-0 in the NBA playoffs have won the series 92% of the time. What that means is even if they win tonight, they still aren't likely to come back but at least they'll have a chance.
If they lose tonight, the series is over. They come into this one as home underdogs with the line Miami -1.5 at most of the top-rated online sportsbooks.
The total is 221.5 and I think that's where the value is in this game. I'm not sure who wins but I know for sure the Hawks' offense, especially Trae Young, will be better at home with their backs against the wall. Other than that, I'm not sure you can definitively say that either team is going to win outright here.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
The money line is an indication of that with the Heat somewhere between -120 and -125 depending on where you shop. If you convert those to break even odds, that's between 54.5% and 55.5%.
Even oddsmakers are barely giving Miami over a 50-50 chance of winning which shows you that picking a winner here is basically a coin flip. The total is a different story in the sense that we've seen how these games played out in Miami and it's hard to imagine the Hawks playing worse. If you believe they will play better, which I do, then the total seems like the smarter play here.
Miami Has Been Consistent All Year
When Miami finished first overall in the east, it took a lot of people by surprise. If you've watched them carefully all year, you'll know that no matter who is available to play, their level of consistency is unique in this league.
I expect more of the same from Miami which is why my official play for this game is Over 221.5 (-110) which is available at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). My reason for this NBA pick has a lot to do with Miami's consistency as well as Atlanta's.
The Hawks are a consistently bad defense and I don't think that they will all of a sudden start getting stops tonight. If they do get a much-needed win in Game 3, it will be because their offense shows up in this game. Considering how bad their defense is, they will allow Miami to get at least 112 points or more because that's how much they allow (112.4 to be exact) all season.
Check Out: BMR’s Sports Betting Forum
Miami averaged 115 points per game in Games 1 and 2 but the Hawks' offense was nowhere to be found. I think with their home crowd which is all in for this team the last two years, the Hawks will score at least 112 or more themselves which will push this total over.
NBA Pick: Over 221.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.