The Boston Celtics look to advance to the NBA Finals with the win over the Miami Heat tonight.
The Miami Heat hope to stay alive and push the series back to Miami for a decisive Game 7. Which team will get the job done and be the winning NBA pick?
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, May 27, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at TD Garden
Miami Heat Analysis
The Miami Heat is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Unfortunately, they have been struggling on offense against the Boston Celtics.
After scoring 109 points in the win over the Celtics in Game 3 on Saturday night, the Heat put up 82 points in Game 4 and only 80 points in Game 5.
It was another slow start for the Heat who only scored 19 points to start the game in the first quarter and 16 points in the third quarter en route to the latest lackluster offensive effort.
The loss of Tyler Herro and injuries to Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry has made this offense toothless and ineffective.
Heats Offense vs. Celtics Defense
The Heat does deserve credit for their excellent defensive effort and intensity, however, they have lacked the punch to make Boston uncomfortable.
Much like their loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals in the bubble, it feels like the Heat has lost the war of attrition.
Although notorious for their high levels of conditioning and physical fitness, the Heat bodies are falling apart with the season on the line.
This would be a great matchup if the Heat were at 100%, but at less than full strength, they lack the firepower to keep up with Boston.
Jimmy Butler did not look like himself on Wednesday night, and the 4-18 shooting line indicates as much.
The Heat can only hope that Butler and Herro are ready to go with their season on the line tonight.
Boston Celtics Analysis
Hosting this elimination game, the Boston Celtics seem poised to make the first NBA Finals appearance since 2010.
The Celtics have won this war of attrition, but they have also shown that Boston probably would have prevailed even if both teams were at 100%.
Boston's shooting, playmaking, and ability on the offensive end have shown to be far superior to that of the Heat.
Teams Defense Are Good Enough
Not only that, their defense is equal to or surpasses the defensive genius of the Heat. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league, and they can shut down almost any offense.
The Celtics will have their defensive capabilities put to the test against the winner of the Western Conference, but to do so they will have to get the win tonight.
Robert Williams III Series Performance
Robert Williams III is making a huge impact on this series. Even though he's not big in the box score, his ability to get things done all over the court, especially on the defensive end has been profound in the Celtics' resurgence.
Between Williams' ability to defend inside and out, and Marcus Smart's defensive tenacity on the ball-handler, the Celtics can shut teams down at multiple points of attack.
This combination of Smart and Williams, when healthy, has the Celtics playing some of the best defense in the NBA.
Robert Williams III vs. Bam Adebayo
With Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro nursing injuries, Bam Adebayo needs to step up.
Adebayo had 31 points in the Heat's Game 3 win over Boston, and the Heat will be reliant on Adebayo to shoulder the load as the most talented, healthy Heat player remaining.
Unfortunately, he faces a tough task going against Robert Williams III, who is every bit his equal in basketball instinct and athleticism.
Still, Bam has been trumpeting himself as one of the top players in the league, and these are the challenges he is going to have to overcome if he is going to receive that praise.
Williams III vs. Adebayo Game 7 Expectation
If Bam Adebayo can prove he is one of the top players in the league and have a great game in spite of the excellent defense of Robert Williams III, the Heat have a chance to force a Game 7.
If Robert Williams III is able to shut down Adebayo once again and make the Heat reliant on their limping perimeter players, the Boston Celtics will clinch a trip to the NBA Finals.
Heat vs. Celtics: Who to Bet On?
There are two ways to approach this game. The first is by attacking the total. These games have gone Under with two of the best defenses in the NBA, and the assortment of injuries on both sides makes each offense less effective.
While both teams want to get out and push the pace, both play excellent transition defense, often thwarting the fast break, which has to be pulled up to reset into a half-court set.
Miami has not been able to shoot. They also have players gutting it out through injuries rather than sitting on the bench and allowing healthy players to attack, which has also lessened their offensive firepower.
Heat vs. Celtics: Game 6 Best Bets
Our first way to best bet on tonight's Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 is Miami Heat/Boston Celtics Under 201.
The second way to approach this game is to count on the Boston Celtics to finish it out. The Miami Heat are simply out of gas.
They are physically fatigued and injuries have caught up to them. The Heat are a proud team and they will not go down without a fight, however, sometimes the body betrays what the mind wants.
This is the case for Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler, who despite all their mental fortitude and willpower cannot push their bodies past the injuries they have suffered.
The injuries to the Heat stars have dulled their offensive attack to the point where they no longer pose a threat to slice the heart out of the Celtics.
Our second bet for tonight's Game 6 is the Boston Celtics -8.5.
NBA Pick: Celtics -8.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.