Hawks vs. Warriors NBA Picks and Predictions

profile image of Jordan.Sharp
063_1351610286-aspect-ratio-16-9
Jordan Poole #3 of the Golden State Warriors goes up for a shot. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

The Hawks head into Golden State tonight to play a Warriors team fresh off a win on Sunday. Will the Warriors be too tired to cover this -3.5 spread?

Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors

Monday, November 08, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center

Warriors Playing Third in Four Nights

The Warriors have demolished their last two opponents on Friday and Sunday, beating them by a combined 54 points. However, now they are welcoming in a tough Eastern Conference opponent in the Hawks, so I sincerely doubt we have another blowout on our hands. The NBA Odds for this one have the Warriors as -3.5 favorites, with a total of 221.5.

Golden State’s defense has been incredible this season and they proved that once again on Sunday, holding the Rockets to just 107 points on 100 possessions. They also have been getting a ton of help from one of the league leaders in NBA Odds to win Most Improved Player, Jordan Poole. Poole has been on fire this season and he has led the Warriors in scoring over their last three games. Imagine giving the award to anyone else. The kid plays on a team with Stephen Curry and he has led them in scoring for three straight!

However, short of a Jordan Poole prop tonight, I am worried a little about betting the Warriors in this spot. Their defense should still come to play and I think their offense should be able to best the Hawks’ defense. The Hawks’ defense has been atrocious lately and on the road. They are allowing 113.3 points per 100 possessions in their six road games this season, which ranks 27th in the NBA.

At times their defense has been good, but lately, it’s fallen way down the rabbit hole. Atlanta is allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions over their last five games. These numbers, even with the Warriors playing their third in four nights, are not enough to win this game or even cover.

The Sharp Pick

I can’t trust the Warriors here either, despite them mowing down their last two opponents, both were subpar. Instead, I am banking on the Warriors’ defense to continue to play well, while the Atlanta defense should also come to play here in what is one of their biggest games of the young season.

When they started the year, the Hawks’ defense was pretty fierce, so it’s not like they are incapable of playing any defense. All it will take is a little motivation and some confidence and this game should go under the total, especially if the game plays more towards the Hawks’ preferred pace.

So far this season, the Hawks have only played one game with rest advantage, but they cashed the under in that game by more than 25 points. Similarly, the Warriors have played two games so far this season with a rest disadvantage according to Team Rankings, and both of those games went under by 16 total points. Even though they haven’t shown it, the Hawks can play defense and I think their lack of defense lately is pushing this total up just a tad too high.

Normally, I would also like the first half under here, but the potential for the pace to increase too fast and push things over 112 points in the first 24 minutes is a little tough. Instead, I think the full game under has more value. The average pace for both teams should drop considerably in the second half, especially if the Warriors have a lead.

The Hawks are also pretty incentivized to play slow here. They don’t have much of a chance to win if they get into a track meet-style shootout with Golden State. Their only chance to win here is to slow the game down and force Golden State to play a grind-it-out game on their third in four nights.

For your NBA pick, take the under here and let’s hope the Warriors' defense comes to play, but their offense is a little worn down.

NBA Pick: Under 221.5 at (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Under 221.5 (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.