NBA Pick: Heat ML (-145) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat conclude their regular-season series against one another with a second straight game in south Florida on Monday.
Which side of the moneyline at the best sportsbooks has the best value? We also have a total play.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Monday, March 06, 2023 – 07:30 PM EST at Miami-Dade Arena
What You Should Know
Atlanta at Miami is the first of an NBA TV doubleheader on Monday, followed by New Orleans at Sacramento.
One good thing that came out of the COVID-shortened season was the NBA deciding to stage more of these baseball-type series where a team plays back-to-back games in the same city to help cut down on travel. That’s what this is as the Heat beat the visiting Hawks 117-109 on Saturday.
Rather ironically, the Heat turns around and plays another one of these at home on Wednesday and Friday vs. Cleveland., Miami’s eight occurrences of facing the same opponent in consecutive games this season will be tied for the second-most this season behind Houston’s nine.
This concludes the regular-season series between the teams. The Heat lead 2-1 and all three games have been decided by exactly eight points. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS on the NBA picks in its past six in south Florida.
No Big Change Under Snyder
Firing a coach during a season is nothing new, but the Hawks made the fairly unusual move to hire a new coach full-time almost immediately rather than let the season play out and then check the market. Apparently, Hawks’ ownership didn’t want to let former Jazz coach Quin Snyder getaway. Atlanta is 1-2 since he took over for the fired Nate McMillan following Saturday’s 117-109 loss in Miami.
The Hawks are proof a team that looks super-talented on paper as this one does, isn’t always as good as its parts. There’s just no way a team with All-Star guards Trae Young and Dejounte Murray along with good players such as John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, and Clint Capela should be 32-32 and eighth in the East as this club is.
Trae Young’s Performance
Young was terrible in Saturday’s loss with a season-low eight points on 2-for-13 shooting. It was Young’s 17th game under double figures in his career. Murray was no better with 10 points on 3-for-14. Young isn’t known much for defense but did have five steals Saturday, tying a career-high.
He became just one of seven players in the NBA this season to record at least 10 assists and five steals. Since Jan. 28, Young is averaging 25.2 points, 11.0 assists, and 1.85 steals – the only player in the NBA over that time averaging at least 25.0 points, 10.0 assists, and 1.75 steals.
Team Stats
Atlanta has scored at least 100 points in 39 straight games, the second-longest active such streak in the NBA and the fourth-longest such scoring streak in franchise history. In those 39, the Hawks are averaging 119.5 ppg. The Hawks had a 40-game streak of scoring at least 100 points end on Nov. 27 when they scored 98 vs. Miami.
The Heat also held the Lakers to only 98 points on Dec. 28, snapping their streak of at least 100 in 30 straight games, and held the Pelicans to 98 points on Jan. 18, stopping their 100-point streak at 32 games.
There are no notable players listed for Atlanta on the injury report.
- Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
- Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Hawks’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
Heat Usually In Close Games
Miami sits seventh in the East, 2.5 games behind No. 6 Brooklyn for the final official playoff spot in the East. I still think the Heat can get that spot but probably no higher. To participate in the play-in tournament, the Heat are -205. Atlanta, by comparison, is -800.
Bam Adebayo’s Performance
Saturday was only the Heat’s second win in its past eight games. Bam Adebayo had 30 points on 10-for-12 shooting to go with 11 rebounds. His 147 career double-doubles are fourth in franchise history. Adebayo has scored 916 points in the paint this season, the second-most in the NBA.
He has scored at least 30 points 11 times this season, helping Miami to a 9-2 record in those. Adebayo has scored in double figures in all 60 games he has appeared in this season and a career-long 76 straight overall.
Struggling Offense
Yet offense has been a problem in Miami this season as the team ranks just 26th in offensive efficiency at 110.8 points per 100 possessions compared to No. 5 in defensive efficiency. Struggling to shoot and playing good defense usually means close games.
Miami has played 35 games decided by five points or fewer, six games away from tying the 1978 Denver Nuggets for most in a season. The 21 wins by five points or fewer are the second-most in franchise history (22 in 1996-97). The most wins by five points or fewer during a single season in NBA history is 24 by Philadelphia during the 1999-2000 campaign.
Injury-wise, point guard Kyle Lowry hasn’t played in weeks and remains out and might not be back this season. Interesting that the Heat didn’t sign a veteran guard in the buyout market if they knew that about Lowry. Patrick Beverley, Goran Dragic, and Russell Westbrook all could have been options to at least give the Heat depth at the position with Lowry out. Kevin Love, who has been starting since he signed off waivers from Cleveland, is probable.
Team Stats
- Under is 4-1 in Heat’s last 5 overall.
- Under is 16-5 in Heat’s last 21 games following a straight-up win.
- Under is 8-3 in Heat’s last 11 home games.
Final Picks
It’s generally not easy to sweep these two-games series, but Miami is 20-12 at home and Atlanta 14-19 on the road.
Following the NBA odds, we will play the moneyline to avoid a late bad beat. The Heat have stymied the Hawks’ offense this season, so we lean Under as well.
For Miami residents looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Florida betting sites.
NBA Pick: Heat ML (-145) at Bookmaker
NBA Pick: Under 229.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
