NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+257) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
- Pacers -2 (-110)
- Hornets -6.5 (-115)
Top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Bulls vs. Pacers and Spurs vs. Hornets.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for both games. Feel free to parlay both NBA picks at an online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Wednesday, February 15, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Pacers' Offense
During the upcoming All-Star Break, Indiana will impressively send two players to compete in the 3-Point Contest. Those two, guards Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, are high-volume three-point shooters.
Haliburton attempts 7.3 threes per game and converts 39.8 percent of them while Hield attempts 9 threes per game and shoots 42.3 percent from deep. It doesn't stop there, though. Center Myles Turner is more of a three-point shooter than ever.
In earlier seasons, before Indiana's offense became this modernized, Pacers' supporters complained about the lack of spacing that Turner provides. But now Turner is almost as efficient from deep as Haliburton, while attempting 4.1 threes per game. While Turner might not play, he reflects the team's valuable devotion to shooting threes.
Moreover, there are plenty of other shooters to help the Pacers' offense to thrive and, as I will discuss, key Bulls' injuries offset the damage that Turner's absence would do to Indiana's defense.
Bulls' Vulnerable Perimeter Defense
First, let's underscore Indiana's positive offensive outlook tonight by pointing out the problems with Chicago's defense.
The Bulls' perimeter defense wanted to rely on Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. But Ball is injured and Caruso is banged-up to the extent that if he plays, then he won't be fully fit. Specifically, Caruso is going to be a game-time decision for tonight's game as he deals with soreness in his left foot.
Even despite Caruso's contributions this season, Chicago's perimeter defense is vulnerable. The Bulls allow the second-highest rate of open three-point attempts plus one of the higher rates of wide open three-point attempts.
Evidently, it is easy for teams to take advantage of Chicago's perimeter defense, and a Pacers' team that ranks sixth in three-pointers made per game is just the team to do it.
Key Bulls' Injury
Chicago is allergic to attempting threes - although, in any case, it's hard to shoot threes on a Pacers' defense that is much more attentive to guarding the three-point line than the Bulls are.
What the Bulls like to do is, instead, attack the mid-range, despite the favor that analytics accords to attempting layups and three-pointers.
Their key scorer in this part of the floor is DeMar DeRozan, who is known as a mid-range maestro. But DeRozan has been ruled out for tonight's game, thus removing a key Bulls' scorer from tonight's equation, whereas key Pacers' scorers are healthy.
NBA Pick: Pacers -2 (-110) at Bookmaker
San Antonio Spurs vs. Charlotte Hornets
Wednesday, February 15, 2023 - 07:00 PM EST at Spectrum Center
The Odds
After opening as five-point favorites at North Carolina betting sites, the Hornets are being favored more heavily in anticipation of a blowout win tonight.
Their opponent really is that bad. San Antonio enters tonight on a 13-game losing streak, and their last 12 losses came by seven or more points.
Spurs' Lack of Rim Protection
After they traded away key rim protector Jakob Poeltl, the Spurs are more vulnerable than ever on defense in front of the basket.
As of now, they allow the most field goals within five feet of the basket, in which space opponents convert 65 percent of their field goal attempts.
Hornets' Offense
Charlotte has just the offense to exploit San Antonio's rim protection. Among others, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier love attacking the basket by driving inside.
They help explain why the Hornets, fortunately for their outlook tonight, attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
San Antonio's Offensive Outlook
Whereas the Hornets are more balanced offensively, the Spurs are rather disinclined to attempt three-pointers. Looking at their personnel, this disinclination makes sense. They lack quality shooters.
Forward Keldon Johnson, for example, does attempt a lot of threes. But he makes only about a third of them. San Antonio will thus fail to pose a threat from deep, but the Spurs also will fail to threaten inside.
The Spurs love to attack the basket, but they collide with a Hornets' team that allows the sixth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
NBA Pick: Hornets -6.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
Parlay Verdict
For your best bets, expect the Pacers to shoot their way to a cover against vulnerable Bulls while the Hornets rely on their advanced prowess at the basket in order to prolong Spurs' misery.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your betting needs.
NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+257) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
