NBA Pick: Warriors ML (-140) at BookMaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The marquee matchup around the NBA Wednesday night is Memphis at Golden State on ESPN in a potential Western Conference playoff preview.
Which side of the Moneyline has the best value according to the NBA odds at the top-rated online books? Read on, as we also have a Total play later as well.
Remember, fans from the Volunteer State or the Bay Area who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Tennessee or California betting sites.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center
This Western Conference playoff rematch and potential preview between the Grizzlies and Warriors from San Francisco is the second of an ESPN doubleheader. The Nets-76ers is the first game.
Teams are resting key players left and right these days so it’s always smart to wait as long as possible to put a wager down, but this writer believes all the key guys will play in this one other than Grizzlies center Steven Adams.
It’s the second of four regular-season meetings in the series and Memphis’ last visit to Golden State.
The Warriors beat the visiting Grizzlies 123-109 on Christmas despite playing without Steph Curry. Jordan Poole had 32 points before being ejected in the fourth of a chippy game. Klay Thompson added 24 points.
Ja Morant was terrific in the loss with 36 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds but also had six turnovers.
Golden State leads the all-time series 52-48 and 30-19 at home. The Dubs are 4-1 ATS on the NBA picks in their past five at home.
Grizzlies’ Morant Will Return
It’s really getting irritating with teams resting stars in one half of a back-to-back and that’s what Memphis did Monday in a 133-100 blowout loss in Sacramento, the team’s third straight loss following an 11-game winning streak. The Kings outscored the Grizzlies in the fourth quarter 33-10 as Memphis did look tired.
Ja Morant and Steven Adams both sat - Morant will play here but Adams will not as he is legitimately hurt. The NBA league office doesn’t mess around with national TV games and stars resting.
Morant is playing at an MVP level, averaging 27.2 points, 7.9 assists, 5.5 dunks, and at least two of the best dunks of the year. The dude is electric and stands at (+2800) at the top online sportsbooks to win MVP. He probably won’t but should someday. Morant was the 2021-22 NBA Most Improved Player.
In 10 career regular-season games vs. Golden State, Morant is averaging 21.7 points, 6.9 assists, and 4.1 rebounds.
As for Adams, he’s fourth in the NBA in rebounding overall (11.5) and first in offensive rebounds but will miss at least three weeks.
Since becoming a regular starter in 2014-15, Adams’ teams have led the NBA in offensive rebounding in eight straight seasons entering 2022-23. Memphis is currently second with 13.3 boards per game with New York at 13.4.
The Grizzlies are 31-1 this season when leading by at least 10 points at any point in a game. All 31 of the Grizzlies’ wins have come with at least a 10-point lead at some point. I just don’t happen to think they get a 10-point lead tonight. The Grizz are 0-4 ATS in their past four overall.
Dubs On Rare 4-Game Home Slide
When are the Warriors going to flip a switch to get rid of that championship hangover and start playing like a title contender? It hasn’t happened yet with the team at 23-24 and holding down the last spot for the Western Conference Play-In tournament in large part due to a horrid 6-18 road mark.
At the top-rated books, Golden State is given an over-under wins total of 43.5, which probably won’t be enough to avoid the play-in tournament. The Dubs are +145 to compete in that and +450 third favorites to win the West again behind Denver (+350) and Memphis (+390).
Golden State nearly got its signature win of the season last Thursday in Boston but blew a late lead and lost in OT. Then the Dubs sat basically everyone of note last Friday and were huge underdogs in Cleveland – yet won!
On Sunday, the Dubs played their first home game since Jan. 10 and were solid favorites over a Brooklyn Nets team missing Kevin Durant but lost 120-116 – the Warriors’ third straight game squandering a double-digit lead. Golden State went ahead 106-93 on Klay Thompson's jumper with 6:57 to play, then the Nets outscored the Warriors 27-10 the rest of the way.
The Warriors were unbeatable at the Chase Center earlier this year but have dropped their past four there.
Good luck figuring this team out, but I think the champs put forth a huge effort tonight. Golden State is 8-2 SU at home against teams entering the game with a winning record. Those losses were vs. Brooklyn and on Dec. 5 against Indiana.
The Pick
Perhaps consider a first-half wager here on the Warriors.
In their past six games, they have had a double-digit first-half lead in five and overall have outscored opponents in the first half by 40 points, 396 to 356.
Curry will reach 21,000 career points tonight as he’s only two shy.
He will be the 44th member of the 21,000-point club. Curry has averaged 25.9 PPG in his career versus Memphis.
Golden State is 11-5 ATS in its past 16 after a loss. With no Adams, that helps the Dubs’ cause and I do believe they win but will take the Moneyline instead. It will be very high scoring but 243 points is crazy high.
The Under is 8-3 in Memphis’ past 11 overall and 9-3-1 in Golden State’s past 13 at home.
NBA Pick: Under 245 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
