Free NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for November 19

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Jonas Valanciunas #17 of the New Orleans Pelicans. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP

After a tough loss in Memphis last night, the Los Angeles Clippers look to bounce back when they take on the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans only have two wins on the season so this would seem like the perfect bounce-back spot for the Clippers. Let’s take a closer look at this game’s NBA odds to see if we can find some value.

L.A. Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Friday, November 19, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at Smoothie King Center

Clippers Let Game Slip Last Night

The Clippers have found success this season by having one of the best defenses in the NBA this season. They rank second in the league in defensive efficiency and they need to be because their offense is still a work in progress. It was always to be expected that their offense wouldn’t be as good without Kawhi Leonard during the regular season. They haven’t been bad but they do find themselves at the bottom half of the league (19th) in offensive efficiency.

The line for this game has the Clippers as -3.5 favorites which are great news if you like the Clippers here since it opened at -5. I’m not sure why money is coming in on the Pelicans other than the lack of squad depth for Los Angeles. Considering that this is the second half of a back-to-back, their laundry list of injuries does not put them in an ideal situation here. I am not laying points with the Clippers unless it gets down to -3 or less. My play for this game is on the total.

Under Has a Lot of Value Here

The total for this game is 215.5 which is down slightly from 217 which is where it opened. I’m taking the under in this spot for several different reasons. One of them I’ve already gone over; the lack of squad depth for the Clippers. With Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris and Justice Winslow joining Serge Ibaka on the sidelines, the Clippers bench has been left really thin. Add to that the fact that they played last night and you get the main reason money is coming in on a Pelicans team with only two wins.

The other factors are a bit more obvious. Again, I’ve already mentioned how good the Clippers’ defense is but we haven’t touched on the Pelicans offense. New Orleans is 26th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. The only thing that they excel at on offense is attacking the basket and getting to the free-throw line. They are currently 7th in the league in free throw rate. Unfortunately for the Pelicans, that won’t work against the Clippers.

Part of what makes them so great on defense this season is that they defend without fouling. They are the number one team in the league in terms of opponent free throw rate. Add to that the fact that the Pelicans somehow have the lowest two-point field goal percentage in the league and you have all of the recipes for a low-scoring game.

While we might have gotten used to New Orleans playing fast over the last few years, that is not who they are under head coach Willie Green. They play at the 22nd slowest pace in the league which is another reason I’m taking the Under 215.5 (-110) which is available at Bovada.

NBA Pick: Under 215.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.