Free NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for January 10

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Terence Davis #3 of the Sacramento Kings blocks the shot of Olivier Sarr #30 of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

The Cleveland Cavaliers look to bounce back tonight when they take on the Sacramento Kings, after losing last night at Golden State. The Kings also lost last night on the road in Portland which was their fourth straight loss.

Cleveland has been one of the surprises of the first half of the NBA season and comes into this game as road favorites according to the NBA odds.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Sacramento Kings

Monday, January 10, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Golden 1 Center

Cavs Look To Bounce Back

After more than a third of the way through this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record against the spread (ATS) in the NBA at 26-12-2. They have been one of the surprises of the season and what they are doing is certainly no fluke.

Their foundation is defense and they get it done every single night on that end and they do it at an elite level. Even in their loss to Golden State last night, they held the best team in the NBA to 96 points on the night.

Tonight they come into this game in Sacramento as big road favorites which is not a spot that they would be used to. The line opened at Cavs -5 at most of the top online sportsbooks. It has moved up to -5.5 with some -6's already showing depending on where you shop.

As good as the Cavs are, you're asking a lot when you're telling me they have to win by more than two possessions on the road. As bad as the Kings are, I can't lay this many points with many road teams in the league and that includes Cleveland. The total tonight is 220.5 and my official play is on the under.

Defense Will Be Key to Victory

As I've already mentioned, the Cavs defense is elite and I believe that they will do enough here to keep this game to under 220.5. The average total of Cleveland's road games on the season is 209.2 points per game.

Sacramento actually averages fewer points per game at home than they do on the road. With an average of 107.3 points per game at home, I don't think they can score enough to get this total to the over. On top of that, both teams played last night so there is a chance that the pace is lacking tonight.

The Kings are top ten in the league (8th) in pace but the Cavs are at the other end of the spectrum. They play at the 9th slowest pace in the league. I think that Cleveland as the better team will be able to slow the pace down in this game.

Another big advantage for Cleveland is their size and ability to protect the rim. If the Kings can't get to the basket and are forced to rely on their outside shooting, the Cavs will not only pick up a win, they just might cover that spread too.

The Pick

My official NBA pick is under 220.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). I think a Cavs win plays to the under and even though I'm not totally confident they cover the spread; I do think they win this game which plays to the under tonight.

NBA Pick: Under 220.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 220.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.