Clippers vs. Suns NBA Odds, Preview and Prediction

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Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

The Over has the right stuff for your Thursday NBA picks when the Phoenix Suns host what’s left of the Los Angeles Clippers.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns

Thursday, January 06, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Footprint Center

In theory, there might be some betting value on the Los Angeles Clippers this Thursday when they visit the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers have just opened as 11.5-point underdogs on the NBA odds board at BetOnline – usually the first major online sportsbook on the scene. But the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight project Phoenix to win by 10.5 points. That does leave a smidge of potential profit margin on the Clippers, which makes total sense from an old-school handicapping perspective.

Did I just say “total”? There’s also a 220-point over/under on the NBA lines, down a point from the open, and as you may have already figured out, we’re recommending the Over here at the ranch. This has been a profitable pick across the league at 26-23 (53.1 percent) during the past seven days, and it’s been profitable for both these teams recently, so who are we to argue?

Got Juice?

As much as we love contrarian betting around here, taking the Clippers ATS for anything more than a fun-size bet doesn’t make much sense. The NBA picks you make at the standard –110 juice have to come true at least 52.4 percent of the time in order to see a profit; the old Malmuth-Sklansky approach is to bet only when there’s at least a 2-point difference between your projections (in this case, we’re deferring to FiveThirtyEight) and the basketball odds, which leaves you ample room to start throwing your money around.

We don’t have any projections for Thursday’s total that we can share with you, but we do know that the Over is 6-3 in the last nine games for the Suns, which coincided with the return of Devin Booker (plus-3.2 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM at Basketball Reference) from the injured list. The Over has also cashed in three straight times for the Clippers, and is 4-2 since Paul George (plus-1.4 OBPM, plus-1.5 DBPM) tore up his right elbow. Delicious.

Beware the Clip Joint

The George situation is particularly noteworthy. Even with Kawhi Leonard yet to play this season, George’s offense has cratered compared to years past. His Offensive Rating of 98 points per 100 possessions is the lowest of his career thus far (throwing out his 2014-15 campaign, where he only played 91 minutes), and down considerably from last year’s 113 rating.

At the same time, George is playing his best defense since donning the Clippers uniform in 2019. And with L.A. also missing big men Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein, they’re giving up a lot of stopping power in the paint, too – especially in Hartenstein’s case. He’s been their stealth MVP off the bench at a team-high plus-5.6 BPM (plus-1.5 OBPM, plus-4.0 DBPM). Given these absences, it’s only natural we’re keen to avoid the Clippers ATS and hammer the Over instead, at least for the standard single-unit wager. Join us, won’t you?

NBA Pick: Over 220 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 220 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.