Clippers vs. Mavericks Picks and Prediction: Can Luka Doncic Carry Dallas at Home?

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Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks shoots a free throw against the Brooklyn Nets. Tim Heitman/Getty Images/AFP.

The Los Angeles Clippers are currently 8-6 with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. Can the Clippers steal another game on the road against the Dallas Mavericks?

Let’s see what the NBA odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks

Tuesday, November 15, 2022 – 08:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center

What You Should Know

The Los Angeles Clippers don’t have John Wall or Kawhi Leonard, but they’re still sitting at 8-6 on the season. They’ll take on the Dallas Mavericks, who are also 2 games above .500, at 7-5.

The Clippers have won 3 of their last 4 games, while the Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5 games. Both teams are trending in the right direction. The Clippers just hope to get healthy sooner rather than later.

Here are our NBA picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks.

Clippers Have Struggled Offensively

The Los Angeles Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and John Wall. That might explain why the Clippers have scored just 106.2 points per 100 possessions this season.

The Clippers have earned just 21.2% of offensive rebounds and have turned the ball over 16.2% of the time. Both of those numbers are in the bottom 5 in the NBA. Despite all of this, the Clippers have still shot a 54.2% effective field goal percentage and are getting to the line with a 19.2 free throw rate.

The Clippers are getting quality looks but rarely get a second chance and turn the ball over at a high rate. If they can crash the glass more and limit turnovers, the point totals would skyrocket for the Clippers.

On the other hand, the Mavericks have held teams to 111.3 points per 100 possessions. Dallas has also earned 15.7% of turnovers this season. Therefore, this game isn’t going to help Los Angeles’ turnover margin. But Dallas has still allowed a 53.5% effective field goal percentage and they’ve been just average on the defensive glass.

The Clippers can still get hot from the field and not even worry about earning second chances.

Can Mavericks Score Consistently?

The Mavericks are scoring 114.6 points per 100 possessions with a 55.5% effective field goal percentage. They’ve certainly been the more consistent offense. Dallas has limited turnovers to 13.9% and has a free throw rate of 23.

The only thing Dallas has struggled with on offense is earning offensive rebounds. They’ve only brought down 23.9% of offensive rebounds, but that’s still more than the Clippers offensively.

Anyway, Los Angeles has held opponents to 108.1 points per 100 possessions with a 52.2% effective field goal percentage. Los Angeles won’t earn a heavy amount of turnovers but should at least hold the Mavericks off the glass.

Plus, although the Mavericks get to the line at a high rate, the Clippers are the best team in the NBA at limiting foul shots, giving up a free throw rate of 16.1.

Luka Doncic is doing most of the work for the Mavericks, with 34.3 points per game, 8.7 rebounds per game, and 8.1 assists per game. There are only 3 other players in double figures offensively because of Luka.


Prediction and Picks

Tonight, the Mavericks should be able to force a bunch of turnovers. In turn, that should help Dallas earn more shots from the field. You’d also have to imagine that the Mavericks will earn more offensive rebounds and have 2nd chances to score points as well.

Neither team should end up getting to the line at a high rate. However, the Mavericks do foul more often. Los Angeles might get to the line more, but because of turnovers and lack of offensive rebounds, the Clippers are having a hard time scoring consistently.

What To Expect

Meanwhile, the Mavericks are top-ten in every major category on offensive but offensive rebounding. Yet, they’ll probably still do a better job on the offensive glass than the Clippers.

Dallas will hold on to the ball more often and likely take better shots, despite Los Angeles being the better defense.

I’m backing the Mavericks at home against the spread. The Clippers have won 3 of their last 4 games, but until Los Angeles shows me consistency offensively, I’m not going to back them, especially on the road.

Score Prediction: Mavericks 112 - 98 Clippers

NBA Pick: Mavericks -7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mavericks -7 (-110)
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NBA Pick: Under 212 (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 212 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.