Game 5 was a classic and it’s hard to imagine that tonight’s matchup between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee will be any different.
This is a very evenly matched series and the line for the game is a representation of that. Can the Boston Celtics force a Game 7 at home or will the Bucks move on to the Eastern Conference Finals? Let’s break this game down to see where we can cash our NBA picks.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, May 13, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Celtics vs. Bucks Playoffs Series Recap
Milwaukee managed to win Game 1 in Boston to steal home court. The Celtics took that back in Game 4 winning at Milwaukee only to lose Game 5 after going into the 4th quarter with a 9-point lead.
That may be the turning point in this series as the Bucks will be expected to play with an increased level of urgency tonight. The fact is, they don't want to play a Game 7 at Boston, and with their championship experience, they've shown us that they know how to close.
Celtics vs. Bucks Betting Analysis
The line for this game is Bucks -1.5 at most of BMR's top-rated sportsbooks. The truth is, anything under -3 for Milwaukee at home is a gift. The problem with taking that here for me is context. This series is as even as it gets and this game will likely be decided by one possession.
So if you're taking aside, it can't just be based on the number that's offered. Obviously, that's never the case since there are so many variables involved when making a pick. What I'm trying to say is, in this series, blindly betting the number because it has perceived "good value" isn't enough.
That is why context is the most important thing when trying to cap these games. In my opinion, there is more value in the total for tonight which sits at 211. Through five games, I don't know who the better team is. I do know that this total seems very high for what we've seen so far which is why I will not be betting aside here.
Bucks vs. Celtics: Why Bet on the Under?
My official NBA pick for this game is Under 211 (-108) available at the NBA odds board. I like the under here because most of the games in this series have played to under that total. The first two games had a total of fewer than 200 points.
There were a total of 224 points scored in Game 4 but that can be misleading. If you watched the game, Through the first three quarters, the game was on pace to finish in the 204-210 range. Instead, the teams combined for 71 points in the 4th quarter led by Boston's 43.
That took Al Horford having an out-of-body experience where he suddenly looked 26 again and went a perfect 6-6 from the field in the final quarter. In the context of this game, I don't think we see two free-flowing offenses with everything that's on the line.
Boston will be desperate here and the backbone of their team is defense. If this game goes over, I don't see how they win. That doesn't mean that they'll win if the total goes under but I do anticipate this being an old-school playoff game with few fast-break opportunities. I'll take the under in this tightly contested NBA playoffs game which is shaping up to be a classic.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.