By the Numbers: Heat vs. Pistons NBA Odds and Trends

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Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat. Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

The Detroit Pistons face a tough test when they host the Miami Heat in what should be a very entertaining game on Tuesday. Can the Pistons beat the NBA odds at home?

Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons

Tuesday, November 23, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST at Little Caesars Arena

The Heat (11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS) split a home and home series with the Wizards while the Pistons (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS) were outscored 37-17 in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 121-116 home loss against the Lakers and they've now dropped three of their last four games.

Miami opened at -10 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) and FiveThirtyEight have them at -7, giving them a 76 percent chance to win. For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Heat at -9.87 using his Rating numbers and at -10.69 using his eigenvector analysis. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) set the total at 207 and Sagarin projects these two teams to combine for 207.84 points.

This leaves a three-point gap between the FiveThirtyEight projections and the actual NBA odds for the Pistons. Should we add Detroit to our NBA picks? Here’s a look at some of the numbers that have accompanied these teams to this point.

2: The Pistons have won just two of their nine home games this season.

3: The Pistons are just 3-9 against Eastern Conference teams.

25.1: Jimmy Butler currently ranks ninth in the NBA, averaging 25.1 points per game.

109.8: The Heat rank second in the Eastern Conference scoring 109.8 points per game and shooting 46.4 percent from the field.

99.6: The Pistons rank 29th in the NBA, averaging 99.6 points per game.

41.1: The Pistons are shooting just 41.1 percent from the field in their last 10 games.

41.7: The Pistons rank 30th in the league, averaging 41.7 rebounds per game.

7.1: LeBron James hit Isaiah Stewart in the third quarter of Sunday's game. James received a one-game suspension while Stewart is suspended for two games because he went after him. Stewart leads the Pistons with 7.1 rebounds.

48.1: The Pistons rank 30th in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 48.1 percent from the field.

39.3: The Pistons rank 29th in the league, allowing opponents to shoot 39.3 percent from beyond the arc.

3.1: Duncan Robinson is averaging 3.1 made 3-pointers over his last 10 games.

8: Markieff Morris is out with a neck injury. Morris is P.J. Tucker's backup and without him the Heat will give more playing time to KZ Okpala. Morris has an Offensive Rating of 105 at Basketball Reference; Okpala’s rating is 97, meaning he’s produced eight fewer points per 100 possessions than Morris.

10: The Pistons have 10 ATS losses in their last 12 games against a team with a winning straight up record.

4: The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.

SEE ALSO: Free NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for November 23