Top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s playoff action. One game will be played tonight, Mavericks vs. Warriors, and I find it worth investing in heavily.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play both the spread and total for this game. Feel free to parlay both bets at an online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Thursday, May 26, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Mavericks vs. Warriors: Game 4 Analysis
After breezing through the first three games of this series, Golden State lost Game 4 109-119. Because this most recent result represents a stark contrast to the rest of the series, we need to ask if we should expect Game 4 to signify the new norm.
In order to answer this question, we should examine why Dallas won Game 4. Maybe Dallas discovered some sort of matchup advantage that it could exploit or it won in some other way that suggests that it can turn this series around?
The first reason why I am not worried for Golden State is that its Game 4 defeat is an example of something that has persisted throughout the playoffs. In their first attempt at eliminating its opponent, the Warriors have been awful. They first lost at Denver before ending the series at home, the same happened with Memphis, and most recently, they lost by 10 at Dallas. The pattern will hold because they will seal the deal tonight.
Reasons Why the Mavericks Won Game 4
Mavericks' Three-Point Shooting
Despite producing a unique result, Game 4 showed continuity with respect to the way in which the Mavericks want to win games. For our best bets, we need to ask, therefore, if Dallas's strategy for winning is reliable.
Throughout the season, and it is no different in this series, the Mavericks rely heavily on three-point shooting in order to win games. Hence, they attempt the sixth-most three-pointers per game.
The thing about Dallas's offense is that its scoring efficiency is far from ideal. Dallas's offense is inefficient in the sense that it loves to attempt threes but isn't particularly good at making them. The Mavericks rank 15th in three-point percentage.
Mavericks' Efficiency Through the Series
In Game 1, they mustered 87 points in a loss because their three-point shooting output was weak. Shooting inefficiency likewise explains their 100-point output in their Game 3 loss.
While they shot well in Game 2, they were outmatched inside the arc and overall by the significantly more versatile Warriors' offense.
But Game 4 was the perfect recipe for the Mavs: they converted 20 of 43 three-point attempts while the Warriors converted only 35.7% of their three-point attempts.
Mavericks' Offense Analysis
Expecting another three-point shooting effort akin to that which they achieved in Game 4 seems unlikely given the rarity of these efficient outputs that is evident from the way in which this series has gone and from their overall three-point conversion rate. The problem with Dallas's offense is its dependence on three-point shooting. Its players don't score enough in other ways.
In Game 4, all of Reggie Bullock's points came off three-pointers. More than half of Dorian Finney-Smith's points came in the same way.
However, these two guys were the top Mavericks' scorers after superstar Luka Doncic. When these guys aren't knocking down threes at a ridiculous rate, there is little scoring available to the Mavs' offense outside of Doncic.
Poor three-point shooting will be critically deleterious to Dallas's endeavor to win because the Mavericks have been dominated on the glass throughout this series as the rebounding statistics show.
The Mavs are outmatched on the glass because of the small-ball lineups that they employ, which are undersized and therefore physically unable to succeed at accruing rebounds at an efficient rate.
Lack of rebounds means that Mavericks' missed three-pointers won't lead to second-chance points for Dallas. When they miss a shot, Golden State will more likely secure the rebound in order to end Dallas's offensive possession.
NBA Parlay Verdict
As evident in Andrew Wiggins's high-scoring rim-attacking, Steph Curry's efficiency near the basket, Kevon Looney's above-average scoring outputs, and in other ways, the Warriors' offense is decisively more versatile.
It can score a lot inside in addition to boasting the fourth-highest three-point percentage. A more well-rounded and efficient Warriors' offense will outmatch Dallas in what will be a lower-scoring game largely thanks to Mavericks' bricks.
Mavericks vs. Warriors: Parlay Picks
- Warriors -7 (-108)
- Under 215.5 (-110)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.