The NBA odds are now available for tonight’s NBA Finals Action between Boston and Golden State in Game 5. After winning Game 4 in Boston, the Warriors have evened the series. Right now, the series is tied at two games apiece.
The winner of tonight’s Game 5 in San Francisco will take the series lead to bring itself within one game of winning the Finals. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for this game.
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, June 13, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Boston Celtics Trends
I like the Celtics tonight because they are in a bounce-back situation which has been perfectly reliable for them during these playoffs. After a straight-up loss, the Celtics are 7-0 SU. They're winning these games by an average of 15.57 points.
This trend, with all its details, is particularly important to observe because the Celtics are nevertheless underdogs tonight. Tonight presents a strong opportunity to cash at plus money.
To explain this trend further, it has been a factor in the series against the defending champs Milwaukee, against the Heat, and also in this series.
Boston Celtics Playoffs Trends
While tonight's game takes place in Golden State's venue, Boston has been a solid road team during these playoffs partly because their ability to bounce back in these playoffs has persisted even when playing away from home. Here is a breakdown:
- After dropping Game 1 against Milwaukee, the Celtics won Game 2 by 23.
- The Celtics won Game 4 in Milwaukee after losing Game 3.
- They won Game 6 by 13 after dropping Game 5.
- Boston lost Game 1 but then won Game 2 by 25 against the Heat.
- The Celtics won Game 4 by 20 after losing Game 3, and they clinched the series with a Game 7 victory that followed a Game 6 defeat.
- In this series, Boston won Game 3 by 16 after suffering a Game 2 loss.
Boston Celtics Offense Analysis
The quality of Boston's offense has decided this series. Golden State's offensive rating is nearly identical in its wins and losses.
It is 110.9 when the Warriors win and 110.5 when it loses. However, Boston's offense has been bipolar. In Celtic losses, its offensive rating is 95.4. Their offensive rating, though, is 125.5 in Boston victories.
Boston's offense encounters an overly simplistic piece of criticism: the Celtics shoot too much, however, their offense is designed this way to generate favorable jump-shooting opportunities.
One thing that Boston will do is run hammer sets. It will do so with variations. These sets are complex to observe and even more difficult to defend against. Video footage reveals the deceptiveness in these sets created by the employment of decoy actions.
Boston Celtics Defense Breakdown
The defense is also tested by cross-court passing, being manipulated in one direction before having to recover, and by other features of these sets. Jayson Tatum will often initiate the set at the top of the key.
Teammates will run screen actions off the ball and Tatum might act like he is looking to pass the ball to those guys. However, off-ball screens plus strong-side driving will allow a teammate to free himself for an open shooting opportunity on the other side of the action.
While Boston's offense might be called one-dimensional, it is thus actually very creative. Because the Celtics tend to bounce back with strong offense, one should expect them to have vastly more success trying to score in tonight's game.
Celtics Defensive Strategy
Boston is allowing Steph Curry to operate with total comfort because it is hard for one man to win a game by itself and because Boston respects Curry's supporting cast.
The Warriors are favored tonight despite the inconsistency of Curry's support. Field goal percentages and video footage reveal the unreliability of Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Jordan Poole on a game-to-game basis.
Of course, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney are not big-time scorers.
Celtics Lineup Performance
The Celtics have won two games in this series despite the fact that their superstar Tatum has been performing horribly.
One positive surprise has been Jaylen Brown who is said to be more of a regular-season player because he thrives in transition and the playoffs tend to favor a more half-court kind of game/
The Celtics have also been able to rely on stronger scoring also from Marcus Smart, Grant Williams off the bench, Al Horford in wins, and so forth.
Jayson Tatum Performance Analysis
I think that tonight will finally be the game in which Tatum shows up. There simply is no reason why he is struggling -- particularly inside -- as much as he is. He already succeeded against difficult defensive tests posed by Milwaukee and by Miami's highly-ranked defense.
The Warriors don't have anything better to throw at him. But Tatum is too preoccupied with hunting for fouls and complaining to the refs. It is mental with him, and it's time for him to come around while his teammates carry the offense.
NBA Finals: Game 5 Betting Pick
With your NBA picks in mind, expect stronger offense from Boston and therefore a higher-scoring game. The Celtics will bounce back again with strong shooting and maybe even more efficient input from Tatum.
For the above reasons, parlay the Celtics ATS with the Over. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Boston Celtics +3.5 (-102)
- Over 212 (-110)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.