The NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals kick off Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat this Tuesday evening.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at FTX Arena
The total for this game is just 204 points as it is expected to be a defensive struggle with two of the best units in the league.
The over is just 2-9 in Miami games and 4-7 in Boston games this postseason. Let’s keep that in mind for these prop betting picks.
Tyler Herro Prop Analysis
One player likely rooting hard for the Bucks in Game 7 on Sunday was Miami’s, Tyler Herro.
He had to like the way Milwaukee’s defense invites a lot of three-point shots while the Celtics love to switch matchups and get pressure on the ball handler.
Herro has not played well in all three games against Boston this year, shooting 30.2% from the field, 22.2% from three, and averaging 10.3 points per game.
Herro never scored more than 13 points against Boston this year. In fact, Herro has surpassed 13 points just once in nine career meetings with the Celtics.
Jimmy Butler Performance
While Jimmy Butler is thriving for the Heat this postseason, Herro has been underwhelming.
He averages 13.8 points per game in the playoffs with five games of 15 or more points.
Herro has been held under 15 points in four straight games, including under 12 points in his last three against Philadelphia.
He has made one of his last nine threes. Boston is not the matchup Herro would prefer. Let’s go with him under as a scorer in Game 1.
Jaylen Brown Prop Analysis
While Jayson Tatum is the best player in Boston, Jaylen Brown is a No. 2 capable of winning a championship.
- Brown has actually been better than Tatum in games against the Heat this season.
- Brown has scored 28 and 29 points against the Heat in the last two matchups, and he has made at least three threes in all games against Miami this season.
Meanwhile, Tatum has not scored more than 23 points against Miami in three tries. Brown’s game also travels well.
This season, he shoots a higher 3P% (.361) on the road than at home and averages more points on the road (24.4) than he does in Boston (22.9).
Are The Celtics Going to Attempt a Three?
Miami’s defense has been impressive this postseason, but the Celtics are likely going to attempt their share of threes anyway.
Boston is attempting a three on 46.3% of its shot attempts this postseason, the second-highest rate in the league.
Grant Williams was the talk of the town with his seven threes in Game 7, but Brown is the player you want to trust to show up in Game 1 on the road and hit his over in threes against an elite defense.
NBA Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made (-130) with Bovada
Bam Adebayo Prop Analysis
For the Heat to win this series, center Bam Adebayo is going to have to come up big.
He cannot do what Giannis Antetokounmpo did for the Bucks, but it’s not like he needs 40 points and 20 rebounds for this team to succeed.
He just has to provide help to Jimmy Butler, the only consistent offensive player for Miami this postseason, against this aggressive Boston defense.
In the three regular-season meetings between these teams, Adebayo led the Heat with 17 assists and 38 potential assists according to NBA.com.
Does Adebayo Assist His Teammates?
He passes the ball frequently against Boston and even had a game at the end of March, the latest meeting, with eight assists, his second-most in a game this season.
Adebayo also had a game with five assists against Boston. Meanwhile, Butler had just two assists in each of his two meetings with Boston’s defense.
Adebayo can be a playmaker in different ways than just scoring for the Heat in this series. Adebayo’s line for assists is just 2.5 in this Game 1.
He cleared that line in 36 of 56 games in the regular season and seven of 11 playoff games.
Adebayo has not had an assist in either of his last two games, matching his total for the regular season in zero-assist games. He should end that streak and go over the line in this matchup.
NBA Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 Assists (-157) with Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.