Best NBA Playoffs Player Props to Consider for May 12

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The NBA playoffs feature a pair of elimination Game 6 this Thursday evening. Here are a few NBA prop picks from Bovada, a BMR’s top-rated sportsbook, that should bring you the best value for each game.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Thursday, May 12, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center

The 76ers simply did not show up for a big Game 5 on Tuesday. No one had more than 17 points or four assists. Miami cruised to a 120-85 win in a game where Jimmy Butler (23 points) was the only player to break 20 points.

Joel Embiid Prop Analysis

If we are still to trust The Process, then Joel Embiid, the NBA’s scoring champion this season, is going to have to come up big at home in Game 6. Embiid has yet to score 25 points in any of the three games he’s played in this series since returning with a mask on to protect his orbital fracture.

Embiid has had at least one 30-point game in seven straight playoff series. The only time in his playoff career where he didn’t do this was in his first playoff series against the Heat in 2018.

Miami is a good defense and has been a tough opponent for Embiid, but he did score 32 points in a win in Miami back in January. He needs to be aggressively looking for his shot as he’s only averaging 12.3 field goal attempts per game in this series compared to 16.7 per game against Toronto in the first round.

Asking the league’s top scorer to put up 25 points is not a big ask. Banking on the 76ers to win the game is another story, but the 76ers played impressive defense in the two home games while Miami’s offense sputtered outside of Jimmy Butler.

After every Miami starter shot at least 53.8% in Game 5, look for the Heat to cool down on the road. It may be just enough for the 76ers to squeak out a win and extend this series to a Game 7.

NBA Pick: Joel Embiid to Score 25+ Points and Philadelphia to Win (+110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Joel Embiid to Score 25+ Points and Philadelphia to Win (+110)
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Danny Green Prop Analysis

Danny Green is the type of role player you’d like to see perk up in front of the home crowd in a game like this. For his career, Green shoots 3.0 percentage points higher from three at home than he does on the road. In Game 3, he made seven threes in one of the best games of his career.

In this postseason, Green has scored at least 11 points five times, and all but one of those games was at home. Green has scored fewer than 10 points six times, and all but one of those games was on the road.

This is a game where the supporting cast must play inspired. Green should only need three baskets to get past his meager over of 7.5 points in this one.

NBA Pick: Danny Green Over 7.5 Points (-124) with Bovada

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Danny Green Over 7.5 Points (-124)
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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks

Thursday, May 12, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

The Suns embarrassed the Mavericks in Game 5’s 110-80 win. Phoenix dropped both games in Dallas, but the Mavericks are going to have to play much better offense to extend their season.

Luka Doncic Prop Analysis

If the Mavericks are going down in this game, then Luka Doncic doesn’t go down without a fight. In two career playoff elimination games, Doncic has scored 38 and 46 points. He’s already topped 35 points twice in this series, though he has not broken 30 points in the last three games.

A big reason for that has been three-point shooting as Doncic is 5-of-25 in the last three games, his coldest stretch of games in four months. While setting up his teammates has been a priority in the home games in this series, this is a situation where he needs to trust himself and play up to his ability.

It may still result in a loss, but Doncic should have another big scoring night in Game 6.

NBA Pick: Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points (-108) with Bovada

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Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points (-108)
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Chris Paul Prop Analysis

The big Chris Paul game did not quite materialize in Game 5. Paul scored seven points and did not get to the free-throw line for the third game in a row. He has 12 points in his last two games combined and 24 points in his last three games. He scored 28 points in Game 2 of this series when the Suns were rolling on offense.

But Paul did get to 10 assists in Game 5, ending his five-game streak of having under nine assists, his longest streak as a member of the Suns. With Paul’s insistence on setting teammates up early and playing the role of closer late, his assists have usually been a money prop as he led the NBA this year with 10.8 assists per game.

With Deandre Ayton and Devin Booker playing well, Paul has plenty of options to distribute the ball and rack up assists. You rarely get to see assists line this low for him, so let’s take advantage and count on him to hit his over and advance the Suns to the Western Conference Finals for the second year in a row.

NBA Pick: Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (-137) with Bovada

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Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (-137)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.