The Miami Heat lead the Boston Celtics 2-1 in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals with the series resuming Monday in Boston. Here are three-player prop picks on the matchup with odds from BetOnline, one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, May 23, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at TD Garden
We must preface our picks for this story in noting that nearly every key player on both sides of Heat-Celtics Game 4 is on the injury report.
- Jayson Tatum (probable with a neck injury)
- Marcus Smart (questionable with an ankle sprain)
- Robert Williams (questionable with knee inflammation)
- Jimmy Butler (questionable with knee soreness)
- Kyle Lowry (questionable with a hamstring strain)
- Tyler Herro (questionable with a groin strain)
- PJ Tucker (questionable with a knee injury)
- Max Strus (questionable with a hamstring strain)
- Gabe Vincent (questionable with a hamstring strain)
I’m a little bummed out that the Western Conference Finals between Dallas and Golden State isn’t being played Monday night because I was 5-0 on prop picks in the first two games of that series after hitting under Klay Thompson 20.5 points, over Luka Doncic 31.5 points and over Kevon Looney 7.5 rebounds in Game 2.
Frankly, the Heat have been playing games with the injury report this entire postseason. I would be surprised if any of those guys didn’t suit up Monday – that the Heat pulled off the 109-103 upset in Boston in Game 3 with Butler not playing the second half was pretty shocking. Butler intends to play Monday.
Herro left with the groin injury with 8:11 left in the fourth quarter of Game 3. The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year is clearly not 100 percent as he has missed 21 of his past 23 three-pointers. Lowry played for the first time since Game 4 of the last round vs. Philly.
It is possible that the Celtics’ Williams sits for the second game in a row but fully expect Smart out there despite the questionable tag. I definitely wouldn’t bet a side on this one, though, until there’s clarity on all these guys.
Butler Could Be Pulled Early Again
I am going to lean under on Butler’s points + rebounds + assists, though, in case he isn’t 100 percent and if this game gets out of hand, there’s no doubt in my mind that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra will pull his best player to keep him as healthy as possible for Game 4.
Jimmy Butler had 41 points, nine rebounds, five assists in Game 1 and 29 points, six rebounds, and three assists in Game 2 but only eight points, three rebounds, and two assists in his 20 minutes of Game 3.
That Lowry is back cuts Butler’s assists potential in a big way. Simulations have Butler with 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in Game 4, and, again, that’s assuming he plays heavy minutes. That total is still under the betting prop.
Tatum to Rebound
If Boston’s Williams sits, that’s going to mean Tatum will be asked to rebound more. He also usually bounces back after a poor game as Tatum was held to 10 points on ugly 3-for-14 shooting in Game 3 with six rebounds and four assists.
Just for a point of comparison, Tatum struggled in Game 3 of the last round vs. Milwaukee with only 10 points, one rebound, and three assists and bounced back with 30 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists in Game 4. If the Heat’s Tucker has to sit, that would only help Tatum offensively because Tucker is a good defender.
NBA Pick: Tatum Over 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) at BetOnline
The pick on Miami’s Adebayo is somewhat predicated on Williams not playing for Boston because that leaves a huge hole in the paint for Adebayo to gobble up rebounds – plus, again, if Butler is dealing with some pain, he might hang around the perimeter more instead of fighting for rebounds.
Adebayo had a 31-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 3, his 12th career postseason 20-point, 10-rebound game. Those are the second-most in team history behind the 25 from a guy named LeBron James. I think Bam should get at least nine rebounds on Monday.
NBA Pick: Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds (-127) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.