Best NBA Playoffs Player Prop Bets Today (May 20)

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We had big-time prop success for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Mavericks and Warriors on Wednesday. Let’s repeat the feat in Game 2 Friday.

Here are three NBA prop picks on the matchup with odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

Friday, May 20, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center

Mavericks vs. Warriors: Game 1

Mavericks Analysis

TNT has the telecast of Game 2 of the West Finals with Golden State up 1-0. The Mavericks looked completely flat Wednesday, perhaps a natural letdown off the Game 7 upset in Phoenix on Sunday, as they were blown out 112-87 – the third 20-point loss of these Playoffs by the Mavericks, which is pretty hard to believe considering what round they are in. 

In fact, Dallas became the sixth team in NBA history with three 20-point wins and three 20-point losses in a single postseason. None of the previous five teams won a title: 1982 76ers, 1996 SuperSonics, 2010 Celtics, 2016 Warriors, 2017 Spurs.

The Mavericks aren’t winning a title, either; they aren’t winning this series barring injury to Steph Curry.

Warriors Analysis

It was the Warriors’ 16th all-time Playoff win by at least 25 points under Steve Kerr. He is tied with Phil Jackson for the second-most 25-point wins by a head coach in NBA postseason history. Only Gregg Popovich has more with 17. I don’t think Popovich is getting another one (if he even coaches again).  

Golden State owns Game 1 of a Playoff series at home, now winning 13 straight. In addition, the Dubs have won 13 straight best-of-seven series after winning Game 1, the fourth-longest streak in NBA history, and the second-longest active streak behind the Lakers.  

On the updated series line, Golden State is -400 and Dallas +320 at the best sportsbooks and betting sites

Warriors Prop Bet: Klay Thompson 

  • Over/Under 20.5 Points

We were 2-for-2 on our prop picks in Game 1, leaning under 21.5 points for Golden State’s Klay Thompson and under 33.5 points for Dallas’ Luka Doncic.  

I really don’t understand why the books keep inflating these Thompson point totals, although you can see they dropped it one point for this game. He had 15 points in Game 1 and has been held under 20 in six of his past eight games.

He just isn’t the No. 2 option these days behind Curry – Jordan Poole is. I’m going under again. 

NBA Prop Pick: Thompson Under 20.5 Points (-112) at BetOnline 

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Thompson Under 20.5 Points (-112)
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Mavericks Prop Bet: Luka Doncic  

  • Over/Under 31.5 Points

Defensively, the Warriors played Luka Doncic a lot differently than the Suns did. Andrew Wiggins got most of the work, but the Dubs would switch on pick-and-rolls and they even played a zone/box-in-one at times.

Luka was just 6-for-18 from the field for 20 points, easily his low in these Playoffs. It was just the third time out of 24 postseason career games he failed to score more than 20 points. Wiggins personally held Doncic to 5-for-11 shooting and forced him into three turnovers. 

Dallas coach Jason Kidd said: "They did a really good job, Wiggins picking him up full court. They were box-and-one, went zone. But they did a good job. Give them credit. Wiggins did a really good job. We understood coming into the series that we were going to see that. We'll go back and look at the video and see what we can do better." 

The irony is that the Warriors' game plan for the Dubs was to let Doncic get his points but not to let the secondary Mavs' scorers get theirs. I actually think Doncic does get his in Game 2, and the total is 2 points lower.  

NBA Prop Pick: Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-117) at BetOnline 

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Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-117)
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Warriors Prop Bet: Kevon Looney 

  • Over/Under 7.5 Rebounds

Finally on Golden State big man Kevon Looney. He was great in the opener with 10 points on 5-for-5 shooting, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks – Looney surely would have had better numbers across the board but wasn’t needed for more than 28 minutes with the game out of hand. 

Dallas simply doesn’t have much size or really even a true center. Dwight Powell is listed as a center but is really a power forward and rarely plays more than 15-18 minutes a game. The team’s other big men, Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber spend their time out at the three-point arc. The Mavs were pounded 51-35 on the boards in Game 1 – somehow, Curry had 12 rebounds.  

If Looney plays 30-plus minutes in this one as the lone true center on the court, he should sail over 7.5 rebounds. Just for a point of comparison: In Game 6 vs. Memphis, he played 35 minutes and had 22 boards.  

NBA Prop Pick: Looney Over 7.5 Rebounds (-143) at BetOnline 

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Looney Over 7.5 Rebounds (-143)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.