The Bucks-Celtics Eastern Conference NBA playoff series will not end Wednesday night, but the Warriors-Grizzlies Western Conference matchup probably will. Here are two-player prop picks on each game with odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at TD Garden
This Eastern Conference semifinal series shifts to Boston for Game 5 and TNT has the telecast as Boston looks for a 3-2 lead – and I think gets it, although the 5.5-point spread seems a tad high even as the Bucks remain without injured All-Star guard Khris Middleton.
The big injury question for Game 5 is whether Boston center Robert Williams will play. He was a late scratch ahead of Game 4 with left knee soreness – more than a few bettors who played Williams rebounds/blocks props were pretty upset with that. “Time Lord” is averaging 8.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks in about 23 minutes per in the first three games of this series. He’s questionable.
Whether he plays shouldn’t affect my play on Al Horford, who had the playoff game of his career on Monday with 30 points on 11-for-14 shooting (5-for-7 from deep) along with eight rebounds and three assists. The Celtics don’t rally from a 12-point third-quarter deficit and win without Horford. At age 35, it was Horford’s first career 30-point playoff outing in his 132nd career playoff outing.
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The Celtics scored 43 points in the fourth quarter of Game 4, a franchise playoff record for a fourth quarter. Horford, Marcus Smart, and Jayson Tatum combined for 37 points while shooting 15-of-17 from the field, including 4-of-4 from long range.
When the Celtics use Horford as the screener on a pick-and-roll on the perimeter in this series, he pops behind the three-point line after the screen and has been wide open nearly every time. The 6-foot-10 Horford is shooting 14-for-28 from 3-point range and has hit at least four in three of the four games.
"We can run a pick and pop any time we want and get him a wide-open three," C’s coach Ime Udoka said.
NBA Pick: Horford Over 2.5 Made Three-pointers (+140) at BetOnline
On the Bucks side, I was hoping for a Grayson Allen over/under points prop. He came up huge in a few games during the first round against Chicago with Middleton out, but the Celtics are abusing him on defense in this series and Coach Mike Budenholzer no longer trusts the former Duke star much as the Bucks have been outscored by 24 points in the series with Allen on the court.
Thus, I think we may see another game from Wesley Matthews as we did in Game 4 when he had a series-high 12 points. Matthews is known for his defense and really won’t get his own shot much, but all we need is two made three-pointers and a free throw to go over this small total. Matthews is shooting an excellent 44.1 percent from deep in these playoffs. That’s second on the team.
NBA Pick: Matthews Over 6.5 Points (+105) at BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - 09:30 PM EDT at FedExForum
We split on our props for Game 4 of this series, hitting on under 21.5 points for Golden State’s Klay Thompson (he finished with 14) and just missing on over 5.5 assists for Memphis backup point guard Tyus Jones. He finished with 5 and should have had at least 8 by my count but for some missed open shots by teammates.
Let’s go right back to a Thompson points prop in Game 5. He is shooting just 36.3 percent from the field in this series and 28.4 percent from deep while averaging 15.5 ppg. Thompson actually missed all seven three-point attempts in the Warriors’ ugly Game 4 victory.
Throw out Game 3 when Thompson was 8-for-14 from the field and 4-for-6 from deep, and he has been nothing short of lousy. Why would anything change on Wednesday?
Golden State probably will be without Coach Steve Kerr in Game 5 after he tested positive for COVID ahead of Game 4. I still like the Warriors in this matchup.
NBA Pick: Thompson Under 20.5 Points (-109) at BetOnline
Kudos to the Grizzlies for playing so hard in Game 4 as they didn’t trail until there were 45.7 seconds remaining. Without star Ja Morant, the Grizz just didn’t have anyone who could get a bucket down the stretch. While Morant hasn’t been ruled out of Game 5 of this writing, he’s not playing.
Were this the regular season, I would probably recommend over this point total of Desmond Bane, who should get a lot more shots without Morant.
Bane was great in the first round averaging 23.5 points vs. the Timberwolves on 50.4 percent shooting, but he might be worn out chasing around the likes of Thompson, Steph Curry, and Jordan Poole in this series as Bane is averaging 9.5 points on 36.5 percent shooting. He has scored in double digits once and that was 16 points in Game 3. Why is he set at 17.5 here then? This makes my NBA pick easy.
NBA Pick: Bane Under 17.5 Points (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.