Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today (March 30)

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There are 11 games on Wednesday’s NBA schedule, including two nationally televised by ESPN. Here are three NBA prop picks for the night via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics 

Wednesday, March 30, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at TD Garden

Jayson Tatum 

  • Over/Under 7.5 Rebounds 

This is the biggest game of the night as the Heat and Celtics battle the Bucks and 76ers for the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. ESPN has the telecast. 

Getting the No. 1 could be even bigger this season because the No. 2 might be stuck facing the loaded Brooklyn Nets in Round 1 if the Nets win their first play-in tournament game. The Heat are first in the East currently but by just a half-game over Milwaukee, one over Boston, and 1.5 over Philadelphia. The Sixers proved again Tuesday they can’t win big games, so I don’t think they will factor. 

The Celtics blew a late seven-point lead in Toronto on Monday and lost in overtime but were playing without starters Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Robert Williams III.

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The first three will play tonight, but Williams has been lost for at least 4-6 weeks following surgery to repair a torn meniscus. That is a crushing loss because the “Time Lord” has been playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate with his shot-blocking (2.2, second in the NBA) and rebounding (team-best 9.6 per game) 

Since the start of the new year, Boston's 104.3 defensive rating is 4.5 points per 100 possessions lower than the second-place team. With Williams out, Coach Ime Udoka may opt to finish games with Al Horford as the only big man on the court, sliding Tatum and Brown to forward. 

Someone will have to account for all those lost rebounds. Tatum seems option No. 1. He averages 8.1 per game, and I expect him to get at least eight tonight. For this reason, Tatum will be our first of three NBA prop picks.

NBA Prop Pick: Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110) at BetOnline

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Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110)
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Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks

Wednesday, March 30, 2022 - 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden

LaMelo Ball 

  • Over/Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists  

New York is finally playing well on a four-game winning streak, but it’s too little, too late as the Knicks are five games behind Charlotte for the No. 9 spot in the East and 4.5 behind Atlanta for No. 10 and the final play-in tournament spot. In fact, the Knicks would be eliminated from getting to No. 9 with a loss here. A Charlotte win clinches no worse than the No. 10 seed. 

Guys get jacked up to play in the world’s most famous arena, and I thus expect showman LaMelo Ball to play extremely well tonight – I’m sure his loudmouth dad will be in attendance. LaMelo is averaging 20.0 points, 7.4 assists, and 6.8 rebounds this season, so he essentially would need those numbers to get over this total. In his past two games, Ball has put up lines of 22/11/6 and 33/9/7. 

When Ball is hitting from deep, he’s about unstoppable. He has five games with a least five made three-pointers over his past eight. In March, Ball has been stellar from deep, connecting on four or more three-point attempts in eight games as he has totaled 46 three-pointers, tied for eighth in the NBA.

When he has made four or more threes in March, the Hornets are 5-2. He is just one of four players this season with multiple streaks of three-plus games making five three-pointers along with Steph Curry, Zach LaVine, and Fred VanVleet. Over his last four games, Ball is averaging 27.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists, ranking eighth in scoring. Against the Knicks this season, Ball is averaging 22.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists

NBA Prop Pick: Ball Over 34.5 P+R+A (-112) at BetOnline 

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Ball Over 34.5 P+R+A (-112)
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Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets

Wednesday, March 30, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Toyota Center

Damian Jones 

  • Over/Under 13.5 Points 

This game is utter trash with two teams that would be better off by losing for draft lottery purposes. The Kings are in full shutdown mode with their two best players, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, likely done for the season. A few other guys are iffy tonight. 

It could be that Damian Jones is the lone active center against Houston for the Kings (he has been starting for Sabonis), so I guess I understand with he is listed with a total of 13.5 points even though he averages just 6.9 points on the season. Jones has scored 15 points in back-to-back games, but that’s a bit of a fluke because he shot 6-for-8 from the field in both – granted, most of those shots very from close range. 

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Before this recent stretch of 15-point games, Jones hadn’t scored more than 14 since Feb. 8. I expect the benches to be emptied on both sides here, and Jones to be limited to around 25 minutes. He won’t top 13.5 points. One DFS projection site has Jones at 9.8 points for this game. 

NBA Prop Pick: Jones Under 13.5 Points (-117) at BetOnline

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Jones Under 13.5 Points (-117)
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