Basketball Plays of the Day for November 1: Free NBA Betting Picks

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Kemba Walker #8 of the New York Knicks reacts with RJ Barrett #9 and Mitchell Robinson #23. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve got an Atlantic Division matchup with the New York Knicks hosting the Toronto Raptors. After a slow start to the season, the Raptors have reeled off three straight wins while the Knicks have won four of their five opening games. Both teams look different from what we’ve come to expect from them the last few years so let’s dig a little deeper to see if we can find some value at the best online betting sites.

Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks

Monday, November 01, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden

Knicks Offense Is On Fire

The main reason the New York Knicks offense has excelled so much this season is their three-point shooting. Last season, they were 21st in made threes per game. This season they lead the league which has resulted in them being second in scoring through five games. It's tough to say whether or not that will last but if they can at least stay in the top ten, that puts a different ceiling on this team. Five games aren't nearly enough to make that call yet but tonight will be an interesting test.

Raptors Doing It With Defense

I am not a big believer in this Raptors small ball lineup but the more I watch them, the more I'm convinced that they are doing this because they have no choice. What has impressed me is the fact that their defense has not taken a step backward. Toronto is currently 7th in defensive efficiency and 5th in points per game against. The defensive versatility of their team has been impressive to watch although I do think the Knicks roster will make things tough on them tonight. According to the BMR odds page, the Knicks come into this game as -3.5 point favorites. Most sportsbooks have settled on that number and I think it's very sharp. My look for this game will be on the total.

Total Has Value in This Spot

The total for this game is 211 which is a very sharp number. The Knicks are second in the league in scoring at 117 points per game while the Raptors are on the other end of the spectrum at 103.7 per game which ranks twenty-second overall. I'm taking the under because of a few factors but mainly the Raptors' ability to defend the three. They are 11th in threes allowed per game and 9th in attempts allowed.

They clearly know that the Knicks are now 6th in three-point attempts per game and will ramp up their defensive intensity on that front. As for the Raptors offense, they no longer rely on threes the way they have for the past few years and are near the bottom in both makes and attempts. Variance plays a huge factor when trying to make predictions in sports so that's why I'm cautious about New York's offense.

They are shooting the second-highest three-point percentage in the league (41%) and I'm not sure that's really sustainable. Of all the things that are most likely to regress back to the mean for these two teams, three-point shooting has to be right at the top of the list. Add to that the fact that both of these teams are in the bottom five in terms of pace when making your NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Under 211 (-109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 211 (-109)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.