2022 NBA Draft Last Chance Value Picks

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The bow on the 2021-22 NBA season is officially tied Thursday night with the 2022 NBA Draft from Brooklyn.

We will try to ignore all the smokescreens teams are putting and provide some late value plays with betting odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) and Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), two of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. 

2022 NBA Draft 

Thursday, June 23, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Barclays Center


What You Should Know About the 2022 NBA Draft

Is There a Top Prospect at the 2022 NBA Draft?

Do you remember the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft in late April from Las Vegas? If not, let me recap:

  • There was no true superstar quarterback available (actually one of the worst groups of QB in years) or consensus top prospect.
  • It was far from a sure thing who was going to be picked No. 1 overall.
  • It ended up being a guy who was once a +4000 long shot at the best sportsbooks to go first: Georgia defensive lineman Travon Walker to Jacksonville. 

Well, Thursday night’s NBA Draft from Brooklyn is largely the same: There is no clear-cut franchise player available like a Zion Williamson in 2019 to New Orleans – whether Zion is actually a franchise player is still up for debate because he can’t stay healthy.  

Who Has the No. 1 NBA Draft Pick?

Orlando Magic has the No. 1 NBA Draft pick. But, it’s truly up for grabs which player they will take at No. 1 overall Thursday.

And, no, the Magic won’t be trading the pick because no team is going to give up a king’s ransom for it in a draft where there are considered to be four potential All-Stars in Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, and then a bit of a drop-off.  

Yeah, it’s a bad draft to be sitting at No. 5, which the Detroit Pistons are even though they were tied with Orlando and Houston for the best chance of winning the lottery. But the Pistons did very well last year with the No. 1 overall pick in Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham. He didn’t win Rookie of the Year but should be a perennial All-Star. 

Why Are There 58 Picks in the 2022 NBA Draft?

Incidentally, there are only 58 total picks Thursday instead of 60. Why? Miami and Milwaukee lost second-round picks as tampering penalties. 


2022 NBA Draft Picks


NBA Draft Prop Bet: Top 3 Prediction

A college freshman has been the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft in each of the last 12 years and that’s a lock to continue — the last non-freshman to be selected with the first pick was Oklahoma sophomore Blake Griffin in 2009. 

I am fairly confident that the Top 3 Thursday will be Smith to Orlando, Holmgren to Oklahoma City, and Banchero to Houston. In that exact order would pay +115 at Bovada. I am very confident, though, that they will go in the Top 3 in any order and that would pay -250.

All three teams are pretty set in the backcourt and need frontcourt help, especially Houston after it traded Christian Wood to Dallas for the No. 26 overall pick. That trade will be made official at the draft, and Dallas will technically make the pick for Houston and then the deal will be announced. 

NBA Prop Pick: Smith/Holmgren/Banchero in Top 3 Any Order (-250) at Bovada 

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Smith/Holmgren/Banchero in Top 3 Any Order (-250)
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NBA Draft Prop Bet: No. 4 Pick Prediction

The one spot I am most confident on is Purdue guard Jaden Ivey as the No. 4 overall pick – it just might not be to Sacramento as the Kings already have a similar player in De’Aaron Fox.

There is widespread speculation that the Kings will trade that pick to a team that craves Ivey, who is ranked by some scouts as the top prospect. Detroit at No. 5 would love to pair him with Cunningham. The Knicks lust after Ivey but I’m not sure if they have enough to rise from No. 11.

Ivey is a -140 favorite at BetOnline to go fourth. I’m honestly not sure why neither of the books is giving an Over/Under for him.  

NBA Prop Pick: Ivey as No. 4 Overall Pick (-140) at BetOnline 

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Ivey as No. 4 Overall Pick (-140)
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NBA Draft Prop Bet: Over/Under Position

Utah Jazz to Trade Rudy Gobert

The NBA has become a perimeter league. In the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, the Utah Jazz couldn’t beat the Dallas Mavericks even though the Mavs didn’t have star Luka Doncic for two games because the Mavericks were running pick-and-rolls on the perimeter involving Jazz center and three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.

Leaving him on the perimeter meant the lane was open so the “Stifle Tower” couldn’t block shots or rebound. Offensively, he’s a non-factor because all Gobert can do is dunk.

That’s why the Jazz are going to trade him, perhaps at the draft and my guess is to Chicago. That’s a prop for another day. 

The Next Rudy Gobert

In my mind, the most Gobert-like player in this year’s draft, at least among the well-known guys, is Duke’s Mark Williams

  • The 7-foot-1 sophomore averaged 11.2 points on an incredible 72.1% shooting.
  • He had 7.4 rebounds and 2.82 blocks last season.
  • He led the NCAA in dunks (Gobert led the NBA).
  • He won ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors.  

My point: Mark Williams is Rudy Gobert. Even 10 years ago, Williams would be a Top 10 pick. Not in the modern NBA. I’m not saying Williams won’t be a fine pro, I just see no chance he goes before No. 15.

Actually, if the Bulls don’t trade for Gobert, Williams could land in Chicago at No. 18 because they do need a defensive anchor.  

NBA Prop Pick: Williams Over 13.5 Draft Position (-160) at Bovada 

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Williams Over 13.5 Draft Position (-160)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.