The New York Yankees may be red-hot, but it’s the Chicago White Sox who should go in your MLB picks for Friday’s matchup.
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, May 13, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Why Fade the Yankees?
Maybe the New York Yankees will finally win that World Series their fans have been thirsting for. It’s been 13 years since the Yankees took home the Commissioner’s Trophy – you know, the one with all the flags on it. That’s an eternity for this very proud franchise.
Finally, after all those blown opportunities, untimely injuries, and stolen signals (clang), the Bronx Bombers are back on track. Almost all of New York’s key players are healthy, and they lead the majors at 23-8, good enough for 6.39 betting units in sweet, sweet profit.
So of course, we’re fading the Yankees for Friday’s MLB picks. With great power comes great chalk; New York opened at –163, then moved to –178 at Bovada for this matchup with the Chicago White Sox (15-15, minus-2.53 units), while FiveThirtyEight’s 58-percent projection for the visitors works out to –138 using the perspicacious BMR Odds Converter. Accept no substitutes.
Yankees Betting Trends
Fading the Yankees is about as classic a contrarian betting approach as you’re going to get. I hear a lot of p’shaw and tut-tut these days when it comes to betting against the public, but these are the New York Yankees, and they are near the top of the public money charts again this year, way ahead of Chicago in the middle of the pack.
I mean, I’ll just leave this here:
- 2021: 92-70, minus-1.84 units
- 2020: 33-27, minus-7.29 units
- 2019: 103-59, plus-11.71 units
As you can see, after that amazing 2019 campaign that ended prematurely at the hands of the Houston Astros, the Yankees couldn’t keep up with the MLB odds. It’s not unlike what happened immediately after their last World Series title in 2009; New York followed that particular 103-win season by going 95-67 and dropping 6.79 units.
Why Bet on the Underdog White Sox?
Granted, the Yankees rebounded in 2011 and made 7.24 units in profit on a record of 97-65. And maybe they’re about to do the same this year. But we’re not just here recommending you fade New York blindly. We’re recommending you fade them because Gerrit Cole (3.59 FIP) is starting.
This is a double-dip into all that chalky goodness with the public Yankees sending their nominal ace to the mound. Cole may be up 1.41 units after leading New York to a 5-1 record, but his .264 BABIP allowed and 88.4 percent of runners stranded are both far away from his career norms. The regression monsters are coming. Did we mention Cole (16-14 team record) lost 5.32 units last year? Despite a stingy 2.92 FIP? Now we have.
Meanwhile, the White Sox have made 1.34 units thus far behind Vince Velasquez (4.31 FIP) on a team record of 3-2. Getting cut by the Philadelphia Phillies last September may have been a blessing in disguise for the veteran righty.
Velasquez has been pressed into service because of multiple injuries to Chicago’s rotation, but the early results have been good, and there’s nothing foreboding in his peripheral stats like there is for Cole. Let’s take advantage while we can.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.