Yankees vs. Twins MLB Best Bets for June 8

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Jorge Polanco #11 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates his solo home run with Tommy Watkins #40. (Photo by David Berding / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Minnesota Twins are the easy MLB pick for Wednesday’s game against the New York Yankees. But what about that total? 

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins 

Wednesday, June 08, 2022 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field

Have the MLB lines gone soft? The New York Yankees opened as –156 road favorites at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) for Wednesday’s tilt with the Minnesota Twins; that’s a bit too chalky according to Nate Silver’s crew at FiveThirtyEight, who project New York’s chances of victory at 57 percent. 
 
To turn that percentage into a “fair” moneyline (no juice attached), all we have to do is run it through the unshakeable BMR Odds Converter. In goes 57 percent, and out comes –133. That makes the Twins worth at least a small wager at +146 or longer. 
 
But what about that 8.5-run total? We’re making two MLB picks for you here at the ranch, and while FiveThirtyEight don’t project exact scores, some of the other projections we’re looking at do (which we won’t share, since it’s proprietary knowledge), and they’ve got these teams combining for exactly 8.5 runs. Drat. 
 
That won’t stop us, though. Now that the weather is improving, the Over is starting to gain some traction on the MLB odds board. And at least one of the two pitchers starting Wednesday’s contest is  vulnerable to getting lit up like it’s April 20. 
 

How’s the Weather in Minneapolis? 

Wednesday’s forecast calls for mostly sunny skies at game time, with temperatures in the mid-70s and not a lot of humidity.

Which means: delightful, now that it’s June. We’re even getting a favorable breeze of around 10 mph heading from third base to right-center. 
 
These conditions should help all those not-very-good Rawlingses get some more distance at Target Field. Granted, they didn’t help us at all last Friday when we took the Over in that Atlanta-Colorado matchup; both staters were en fuego, and the game went scoreless into extra innings before Atlanta won 3-1. But our betting logic was still on point. 

The logic is even pointier now. As we go to press, the Over is on a 49-40 run (55.1 percent) during the past seven days, so the trends are definitely heading in our direction. And we’re not dealing with quite the same level of starting pitching this Wednesday as we did at Coors Field, where the total closed at 11 runs. 
 

Is Nestor Cortes for Real? 

He is very impressive and effective.

Okay, one of the two starters in this contest has turned out to be pretty darned good. Cortes (3.07 xFIP) surprised Yankee supporters last year with an effective junkball display in mostly spot starts. It’s even more effective now that Cortes has added a cut fastball to his arsenal. 
 
Don’t get too carried away by that sparkling 1.50 ERA, though. Cortes has enjoyed at least some good fortune on the mound, judging by his .239 BABIP allowed and 88.6 percent of runners stranded. His personal 6-4 Under record could be due for some regression. 
 
Having said that, we can’t overlook New York’s stellar bullpen, which ranked second overall (plus-2.9 WAR) heading into this three-game series. But the Twins rank seventh overall in hitting at plus-8.5 WAR, and the Over was 8-3 in their previous 11 games, including all three in their most recent set with the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Is Chris Archer Washed Up?

Quite possibly. The Yankees rank fourth in hitting at plus-10.5 WAR, and they’ll get a chance Wednesday night to tee up against Archer (4.89 xFIP), who is five years removed from his last All-Star season with the Tampa Bay Rays. 
 
It’s been all downhill ever since. Archer has been cut down by injuries the past several seasons; he needed surgery two years ago because of thoracic outlet syndrome, and he missed half the 2021 campaign with forearm tightness. 
 
Again, don’t be fooled by Archer’s 3.89 ERA. That’s a full run better than his adjusted FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching); Archer has also enjoyed a relatively low .261 BABIP allowed – his career average is .300. The regression monsters are on their way. 
 
Target Field isn’t to blame for that low BABIP, either. Minnesota batters have a combined .298 BABIP at home this season, and their pitching staff as a whole has allowed a .273 BABIP, so we can’t just hand-wave Archer’s peripheral stats because this is his first year with the Twins. 

Anyway, Archer has the Over at 5-4-1 in his 10 starts, and he’s only made it through five innings once this year. Did we mention the Twins have the No. 29-ranked bullpen (0.0 WAR) in the majors? Now we have. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you. 
 

MLB Pick: Twins (+155) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Twins (+155)
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MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (–103) at Heritage Sports 

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Over 8.5 (-103)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.