Yankees vs. Rays Free MLB Picks and Preview

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The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will play a rubber match of a three-game series in Tropicana Field. The Rays would love to crawl back into contention in the AL East but even with a win tonight, the Rays will have a long way to go to catch up with the 50-win Yankees. 

Can the Rays get the job done tonight? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Wednesday, June 22, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will be playing a rubber match of a three-game series tonight. The Yankees took the first game while the Rays held on to win the second game. 

Despite New York already achieving 50 wins, the Rays would love to make up a little ground with a series victory. It’s going to take a lot of series wins to get back in the American League East race but it has to start somewhere. Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Yankees and Rays. 

The Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is a left-handed pitcher with a 2.72 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, Montgomery has had a 3.87 xFIP with 2.5% of walks. His strikeouts haven’t been high but he’s earned nearly 50% of ground balls which has helped his cause. 

On the other hand, Shane Baz will get the call for the Rays. The young top prospect has a 4.62 xFIP in the last 30 days with 9.1% of walks.  However, he’s shown a glimpse of stardom with 27.3% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Yankees have been electric against righties this year with a .264 ISO and wOBA of .364 in the last 30 days. New York has also struck out under 19% of the time in that same time frame and has walked about 11% of the time. 

Still, the Yankees have only hit 16.9% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days, which is a bit fishy. Meanwhile, the Rays have been very inconsistent offensively, with a .125 ISO and wOBA of .297 in the last 30 days against lefties. 

The Rays have just two players between Vidal Brujan and Francisco Mejia, who are hitting a wOBA of .347 or higher against lefties in the last 30 days. Plus, just like the Yankee, the Rays have hit 15.5% of line drives in the last 30 days against lefties, which is also not going to cut it. 

Game Prediction

The Yankees clearly have the better lineup with plenty of power and a high wOBA. However, they’re going to take on a very good prospect in Shane Baz and despite having a 5.40 ERA, Baz can shine pretty quickly once he gets a better feel for the major league level. 

As of late, Baz has allowed more power to lefties, therefore, the three bats to look out for would be Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter, and Joey Gallo, who have all hit for an elevated ISO number in the last 30 days against righties. 

On the other hand, Montgomery has done great limiting power and also hasn’t allowed a high wOBA to either side of the plate in the last 30 days. The Rays have been extremely bad hitting for power and don’t have much going for them offensively at all analytically against lefties. 

The Pick

If Shane Baz gets comfortable and can find his strikeout stuff early, the Yankees won’t have an easy time scoring against Baz, despite their analytics being high in the wOBA column. 

The Yankees have a .248 BABIP against righties in the last 30 days because of their lack of line drives. For example, Giancarlo Stanton has a .048 BABIP in the last 30 days and 48 plate appearances because he’s hit just 8.3% of line drives in the last 30 days against righties. 

With that said, I like the under in this game between the Rays and Yankees. The Rays are going to dial in tonight and do whatever it takes to get the win. That means managing the bullpen efficiently to stick around in the game. 

So I’ll take the under for my MLB pick of the day. The Rays have been abysmal offensively and the Yankees probably can’t sustain the success they’ve had offensively when looking deeper into the offensive numbers analytically. 

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 7 (+100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.