Yankees vs. Mets Free MLB Picks and Preview

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Max Scherzer #21 of the New York Mets pitches. Mitchell Layton/Getty Images/AFP.

The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees in the first game of the Subway Series. Can the Mets take the two-game series at home with another win tonight? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

Wednesday, July 27, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Citi Field

The Story So Far

The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees, 6-3 in the opening game of a two-game series last night. The Mets are currently 60-37 on the season and are still holding on to a small lead in the NL East Standings over the Braves. 

Meanwhile, that loss for the Yankees brought the Yankees down to 66-32 on the season. However, they’re still dominating the AL East, despite being 4-6 in their last 10 games. How will tonight’s Subway Series game play out? Here are our picks and predictions for the second game of the series. 

The Pitching Matchup

The Yankees are going to follow up yesterday’s loss with Domingo German for tonight’s game. 

German has been pitching in the minor leagues for most of the season. He started against the Astros to begin the second half of the season and allowed six hits and five runs, with two home runs, in three innings of work. 

In that game, he finished with an xFIP of 7.67 and he only struck out 11.1% of batters faced while giving up plenty of line drive contact. 

On the other hand, the Mets will send out Max Scherzer, who is 6-2 on the season with a 2.28 ERA. The veteran right-hander has had a 2.54 xFIP in the last 30 days. 

He’s also struck out 40.2% of batters in that time frame and has truly looked like an ace since returning back from his injury. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Yankees have been hitting right-handers at a solid rate in the last 30 days. As a projected lineup, the Yankees have a .224 ISO and wOBA of .354 against righties along with 12.3% of walks. 

But the Yankees have also struck out 22.8% of the time against righties and will likely see that number increase after facing Scherzer tonight.

In the lineup, there’s plenty of power for the Yankees, between Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Aaron Hicks, and Joey Gallo. All of these bats have inflated ISO numbers against righties. But so far, Scherzer has kept those ISO numbers down in the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, the Mets don’t have the flashier lineup but have the better matchup against German. The Mets are hitting a .170 ISO along with a .315 wOBA against righties with their projected lineup. 

The Mets have limited strikeouts to 18.6% in the last 30 days and have it over 25% of line drives when they get wood on the ball against righties. 

Game Prediction

I don’t think Domingo German will pitch as poorly as he did against the Astros. But things aren’t pointing upward for him. If you look at his numbers dating back to last season, German still has a 4.58 xFIP while allowing 42.2% of hard contact. 

Righties have hit a .222 ISO while lefties also have a .171 ISO. The Mets can show off some power, as they did last night, against Montgomery.

The bats with the most consistent power would include Pete Alonso and Daniel Vogelbach against righties. Brandon Nimmo has also hit righties very well in the last 30 days and is another batter to watch out for.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have to take on one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Their stats and analytics against righties are really good in the last 30 days but they’re taking on a different righty. This is a Cy Young winner and a World Series champion that they’re facing. 

The Yankees will struggle a bit against Scherzer, who is completely feeling himself lately, earning over 40% of strikeouts. 

The Pick

Pitching wise, tonight’s game is a huge mismatch. Again, I don’t think German will be nearly as bad today against the Mets, but he’s going to allow some power from the Mets’ heavy bats and that could be enough for Scherzer to help cruise on by.

You can really never rule out the Yankees and their bats, but the matchup for the Mets is a whole lot better. Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, give me the Mets -0.5 in the first five innings at -120. 

Let Scherzer do his thing. The Mets will get at least a couple runs off German. 

MLB Pick: Mets -0.5 First 5 (-120) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mets -0.5 F5 (-120)
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