Yankees vs. Guardians MLB Predictions for July 1

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Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees pitches in the first inning during the game between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays. Tyler Schank/Getty Images/AFP

After losing to the Astros last night, can the New York Yankees rebound in the series opener against the Cleveland Guardians on the road?

Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Friday, July 1, 2022- 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field

The Beginning of a New Series

The New York Yankees will begin a new series against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday, holding a 56-21 record.

The Yankees are coming off a loss to the Houston Astros yesterday but are still currently the best team in the major leagues.

Meanwhile, the Guardians are 39-34 on the season and still fighting the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central pennant.

Will the Yankees struggle on the road in Cleveland? Here are our picks and predictions for the Friday night game between the Guardians and Yankees.

Who Is Pitching for the Yankees Today?

The Yankees will send out right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole, who has a 6-2 record with a 2.99 ERA on the season.

  • In the last 30 days, Cole has had a 3.55 xFIP with 33.9% of strikeouts.
  • He’s also walked 7% of batters in the last 30 days, which is above average.
  • On top of that, Cole has induced 48.5% of grounders and has limited line drives to 5.9% in those 30 days. He’s been very good for the Yankees this year.

Who Is Pitching for the Guardians Today?

Meanwhile, it’ll be Aaron Civale for the Guardians.

  • The right-hander has a 2-4 record with a 7.20 ERA.
  • In the last 30 days, he has had a 5.08 xFIP with 9.3% of walks.
  • He’s been holding a .448 BABIP in the last 30 days due to Civale allowing 34.5% of line-drive contact.
  • Civale has struggled more against lefties, allowing a .593 wOBA and ISO of .250 in the last 30 days to lefties.

Yankees Lineup Analysis

The Yankees will only have three lefties in the lineup against Civale. New York is also only hitting 17..4% of line drives in the last 30 days against righties.

However, the Yankees still have a .228 ISO and wOBA of .339 with their projected lineup against righties in the last 30 days. There’s plenty of power to go around in this Yankees lineup.

Guardians Lineup Analysis

On the other hand, the Guardians have a .151 ISO and wOBA of .316 in the last 30 days against righties. And nothing will come easy against Cole tonight.

But, I should note that the Guardians have limited strikeouts to 18.7% in the last 30 days against righties.

If the Guardians can put the ball in play against Cole, good things might happen. But that’s a big if.

Yankees vs. Guardians: Game Prediction

There’s nothing to like when it comes to Aaron Civale. He’s got a high xFIP with low strikeouts and high walks in the last 30 days.

And to top that, he’s allowed nearly 35% of line drives while only inducing a little over 41% of ground balls.

The Yankees have power, they’re getting on base and are working nearly 12% of walks against righties in the last 30 days.

Mets Are Hitting an Average of .245

New York has actually struggled with balls in play, hitting for an average of .245 when balls are batted into play in the last 30 days against righties.

But that number should get higher facing Civale, as Civale has allowed a BABIP of .448 in the last 30 days.

Guardians Numbers Against Righties

On the other hand, the Guardians don’t have terrible numbers against righties. But Cole is not a typical righty. Cole is having a ton of success while limiting line drives and walks.

The Guardians could end up limiting strikeouts against Cole, but with the way Cole is pitching, I wouldn’t bet on it.

MLB Pick for Today

The Yankees will be getting nine innings of at-bats regardless of how tonight’s game plays out because they’re the road team.

So if the Yankees are leading by one going into the ninth, they’ll have a chance to win by multiple runs and wouldn’t lose out on that opportunity.

With that said, for my  MLB pick, I’m going to take the Yankees -1.5 against the Guardians tonight. The Yankees matchup well against Civale and figure to mash him tonight.

Line Drives by Civale

Civale is giving up line drives with over a third of his batted balls in play. Those line drives will get over the fence against the Yankees.

With my MLB Play of the Day, give me the Yankees -1.5 in tonight’s series opener.

Score Prediction: Yankees 7- Guardians 2

MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-130) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review

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Yankees -1.5 (-130)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.