Yankees vs. Blue Jays Free MLB Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Corey Kluber #28 of the New York Yankees. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images/AFP

It’s looking likelier by the day that the New York Yankees will be in the upcoming MLB Postseason. It’s also looking like they’re going to be finishing atop the wild-card standings by a considerable margin, gearing up to host the wild-card game while other teams duke it out for the chance to challenge New York at Yankee Stadium.

One of those teams is the Toronto Blue Jays, who desperately need to turn this series around against the Yankees after a tough loss on Tuesday.  With the stage set, let’s get into who wins this game. We’ll go over the MLB odds and give out our MLB pick at the top-rated sportsbooks. 

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays 

Thursday, September 30, 2021 – 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre 

Corey Kluber a Key to the Yankees’ Success

The Yankees didn’t really know what to expect when they brought in 35-year-old Corey Kluber over the off-season, but one of the more preferred outcomes likely would have been a 5-3 record with a 3.82 ERA. While Kluber has spent time on the injured list, it’s hard to argue with the success he’s had in 75 1/3 innings this year

Kluber is rounding back into form a bit, posting a 2.61 ERA over his last two starts and striking out eight hitters over 10 1/3 innings. He’s yet to allow a home run since Sept. 11 and has done a good job of pitching to contact with just a 10% swinging strike rate according to Baseball-Reference. 

Kluber’s numbers this year are hardly a fluke. He carries with him a 3.99 xERA into this start with a low .305 xwOBA. His strikeout rate is well above the league’s average, and his hard-hit rate of 35% classifies as better than average as well. 

In terms of offense, it doesn’t get much better than the Yankees right now. They’re fourth in wRC+ over the past two weeks and they have Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in four out of five games with 13 RBIs in that span. Aaron Judge also appears to be fine after dislocating his left pinky finger against Boston, hitting a solo home run in Tuesday night’s win over the Blue Jays. New York isn’t having an issue scoring runs right now, and would have come away with another win on Wednesday if not for Gerrit Cole’s sloppy outing. 

One thing we should also briefly touch on here is the Yankees’ prowess against left-handed pitching. They rank sixth in wRC+ to southpaws, walking in 10.1% of plate appearances and hitting a whopping 68 home runs. They seem to have mastered the three true outcomes against these types. 

Robbie Ray in Trouble

It should come as no surprise given the Yankees’ success against lefties, but Robbie Ray’s outings against the Bombers have not gone well. He holds an 0-2 record in two starts against New York this season with a 5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 innings pitched. He’s surrendered three home runs and eight hits and five walks. Those are pretty atrocious numbers, and he doesn’t even have his strikeouts (eight in those 9 2/3 innings) to save him. 

Ray has also looked human in his last four starts after surely locking up the Cy Young Award. He checks in with a 3.84 FIP in that span, having walked eight and allowed 22 hits in 22 innings. There have also been four homers hit off of him in that time. 

We have the Blue Jays slumping with an 87 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and Robbie Ray in a tough spot here as he tries to regain his form. The deck seems to be stacked against the Blue Jays, who need a win here. They are just game out of the wild card with the Mariners a half-game ahead of them. 

Pick 

With what I said above, it’s hard to see the Yankees as the underdogs here and not pounce. Even if you’re not the biggest believer in Kluber, these Blue Jays bats have gone ice cold. The Yankees should pull one back here and take this pivotal series against Toronto

MLB PickYankees +135 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Yankees +135
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.