Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 4 Best Bets: Will Judge Delay the Final Verdict?

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Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits a two run home run against the Cleveland Guardians in game 3 of the ALDS at Progressive Field on October 15, 2022. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

After the Guardians stunned the Yankees, last night, in the bottom of the 9th inning, will New York respond with a win tonight to force a “winner-take-all” Game 5 in the ALDS?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Progressive Field

About Last Night's Game 3

The Cleveland Guardians took advantage of the New York Yankees last night, earning a come-from-behind, walk-off win over the Yankees thanks to a ninth-inning rally.

The Guardians will now look to earn an ALCS on their home field. Meanwhile, the Yankees are hoping for a Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.

Bullpen Issues?

Clay Holmes was unavailable to pitch in back-to-back days for the Yankees, heading into the 9th inning up 5-3. Instead, Wandy Peralta and Clarke Schmidt combined to allow the last three runs for the Guardians, allowing Cleveland to earn its second win of the series.

This is a best-of-five series, meaning the first team to win three games will move on. The Guardians need one more win, while the Yankees need two more.

Cal Quantrill Gets Start for Guardians

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Guardians, looking to save themselves a trip back to Yankee Stadium. Quantrill looked effective in his first start against the Yankees but was overpowered in Cleveland’s only series loss.

In the last 30 days, Quantrill has a 4.70 xFIP with 16.8% of strikeouts. He’s also walked 6.2% of batters and has a BABIP of .263 in those last 30 days.

Against Lefties

Lefties have a wOBA of .288 with an ISO of .145, while righties are hitting a .307 wOBA and ISO of .149 over the last 30 days against Quantrill. These are above-average numbers but just slightly.

The Yankees are hitting a .190 ISO and wOBA of .325 against righties over the last 30 days. They’ve hit 19.7% of line drives and over 45% of ground balls while walking 10% of the time. Still, New York has also struck out 26% of the time against righties in the last month. Quantrill isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher, so this favors the Yankees.

The most consistent bats against righties in the New York order include:

  • Gleyber Torres
  • Aaron Judge
  • Anthony Rizzo
  • Giancarlo Stanton
  • Oswaldo Cabrera

Gerrit Cole Gets Call for Yankees

Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole will take the mound looking to get the Yankees a Game 5 at home. Cole looked terrific in his first outing. However, in the last 30 days, Cole’s been giving up a lot of extra-base hits and power. Cole still has a 3.00 xFIP with 31.6% of strikeouts and 6% of walks. However, he’s giving up 56.4% of hard contact and has allowed a wOBA of .378 and ISO of .395 to his last 48 lefties.

Meanwhile, righties are hitting a .247 wOBA but still have an ISO of .200 in their last 69 plate appearances.

Limiting Lefties

Cole will have to limit power in this game against the Guardians. Cleveland is hitting a .141 ISO and wOBA of .312 over the last 30 days. But the lefties in the order are hitting a .188 ISO and wOBA of .346.

The lefties include:

  • Steven Kwan
  • Jose Ramirez
  • Josh Naylor
  • Andres Gimenez

The Guardians will only have four lefties in the lineup against Cole, but those four lefties have plenty of potential. Cleveland also has struck out just 18% of the time over the last 30 days. Those lefties I just talked about have limited strikeouts to 15.8% and have done a great job putting the ball in play against righties over the last month.

ALDS Game 4 Best Bets

Both lineups have power potential. Cal Quantrill has been above-average, but he’s just a few bad pitches away from being below average in the last month. Meanwhile, Cole has struggled with allowing extra-base hits, and while he’s getting a ton of strikeouts, the Guardians aren’t always put away easily.

Still, I like the Yankees to respond with a win tonight. Clay Holmes will be available to close out this game, unlike last night. For your MLB picks, back the Yankees and the Under in a low-scoring game tonight.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-125) at BetOnline

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-165) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Yankees ML (-165)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.