Our favorite sportsbooks have released the MLB odds for Saturday’s World Series action between Houston and Philadelphia.
The last three games between these teams took place in Philadelphia. Crucially, Houston won two of those games, positioning them in a 3-2 lead in the series.
The Astros are one game away from winning the World Series, and the next game will take place in Houston. Of course, either team’s success on Saturday comes down to the productivity or non-productivity of its players.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
To Record an RBI
For this bet to hit, the player we invest in needs to record an RBI. The player I recommend investing in is Yordan Alvarez.
I simply can't imagine Houston winning the World Series without help from Alvarez.
He is one of baseball's most dangerous hitters, someone who can reliably slam opposing fastballs but also poses a significant threat against breaking balls.
It's not like Alvarez's current lack of productivity can be said to stem from big-game shyness. He proved with his walk-off effort against Seattle that he is well-suited for the big moment.
It is a matter of time for Alvarez to turn things around and return to the strong form that he displayed in that initial playoff series.
Alvarez has a strong opportunity to win the bet for us early in the game. He could hit a home run –he hit the sixth-most home runs in the regular season this year.
But he could also achieve an RBI in any number of ways. Most important is going to be his chance of succeeding against Philly starter Zack Wheeler, because Wheeler is likely the pitcher whom Alvarez will encounter most often.
Wheeler relies rather heavily on his fastball. He throws this pitch just over 40% of the time.
Alvarez matches up well against Wheeler in that he slugs just over .700 against the fastball thrown by righties.
Home Run-Match Winner Parlay
For this bet to hit, we'll need two things both to happen:
- The player we select will need to hit a home run
- That player's team will need to win the game
Why Houston Will Win: Framber Valdez
I want to invest in an Astro player to hit a home run, because I believe the Astros will win tonight. Astro starter Framber Valdez will be too difficult for Philadelphia to achieve success against.
The Phillies have been dependent on their power and their home runs: they have accrued a combined total of one home run in their three losses, while power helped them win their two games thus far.
While Minute Maid Park is reputedly small and thus seems more vulnerable to the long ball, Valdez is an excellent ground-ball pitcher. He reliably does a great job of preventing fly balls –home runs are long fly balls.
To be exact, he achieved a 66.5 ground ball rate during the regular season.
Because Philly batters stand to see Valdez more often than any other Astro pitcher tonight, his positive outlook helps promise any Philly batter's likelihood of hitting a home run.
On that note, Valdez remains reliable when facing a team that just saw him in his last start –Seattle and Texas provide two examples.
Philly might be said to have a chance thanks to Zack Wheeler starting, but Wheeler constantly struggles against baseball's finer lineups while trying to limit their offensive output.
His worst starts –against the Mets and Blue Jays, for example, came against high-ranking offenses. His last start –a loss to Houston– helps form a pattern that will resume itself tonight.
Because the Astros rank top-10 in runs per game and are comfortable going against Wheeler, as evident in his last start against them, one should expect them to score plenty.
Rest assured for your MLB picks that Houston's slugger is primed to help Houston score a lot.
As I mentioned above, he is one of baseball's top hitters, even when he isn't seeing fastballs.
MLB Prop Pick: Alvarez to Record a Home Run + Astros to Win (+500) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.