The Houston Astros will look to finish off the 2022 World Series with a win over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 of the World Series. Can the Astros close the door or will the Phillies force a Game 7?
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The Houston Astros will have two chances to bring home a World Series title at home. The first chance will be in Game 6 of the World Series tonight against the Philadephia Phillies.
The Astros took two of three from Philadelphia on the road and are now in a prime position to seal the deal at home tonight.
The Astros had a title back in 2017, but they’ve also made the World Series five times and have only won the World Series once. Another World Series would bring tons of joy to Houston fans and literally no joy to the rest of the world.
At least the Astros aren’t cheating, right?
Here are our betting picks and predictions for Saturday's Game 6 matchup between the Astros and Phillies.
The Astros Will Start the Lefty
Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros tonight. He’s a lefty with a 2-0 record and a 1.42 ERA in the postseason. In the last 30 days, Valdez has had a 1.77 xFIP with 32.4% of strikeouts.
He’s kept his BABIP down to .273 and has earned a very high ground ball rate over the last month. Valdez hasn’t allowed many extra-base hits and has kept his wOBA down. He’s struck out 30% against both sides of the plate.
Now he’ll take on a Philadelphia lineup that has a .127 ISO along with a wOBA of .320 against lefties. The Phillies have struck out over 26% of the time against lefties and have walked under 6% of the time in the last 30 days.
What stands out the most is that the Phillie shave hit 62.5% of ground balls against lefties last month. That’s not good news against Valdez, one of the best ground ball pitchers in the game.
Phillies Will Pitch Zack Wheeler
The Phillies changed up their rotation and gave Zack Wheeler an extra day of rest. They’ll pitch him tonight when his name would’ve been originally called food Game 5.
Wheeler has a 2.28 xFIP over the last 30 days but his postseason record is 1-2 despite pitching well.
He’s not getting run support, but he’s holding things down on his end. Lefties and righties have struggled with low wOBA and ISO numbers. He’s struck out 24.3% of batters in the last 30 days and has walked 5.2%.
He’s also held opponents to a .184 BABIP, which is a very solid number.
Wheeler vs. Astros
However, he’s got a tough lineup to pitch against. The Astros are hitting a .183 ISO and wOBA of .329 over the last 30 days against righties as a projected lineup.
Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker have been red hot offensively, with high IS and wOBA numbers against righties. The Astros have six batters with high wOBA and six with a high ISO against righties over the last month.
Houston’s also hit over 29% of line drives with their lineup and have earned nearly 8% of walks while striking out under 22% of the time.
The Astros have also hit ground balls just 33.3% of the time over the last month against righties. This is going to be a challenge for Wheeler, who allowed six hits and five runs in five innings of work in Game 2. He only struck out three and also walked three, which was unlike Wheeler.
Prediction + Pick
Framber Valdez was sharper in Game 2 against the Phillies than Wheeler was against the Astros. Valdez went 6.1 innings and allowed four hits, one run, and three walks. However, he also struck out nine.
The Phillies are more of a boom-or-bust offense against lefties. They lack power and strike out more against lefties, especially as of late.
Meanwhile, the Astros already had success against Wheeler in Game 2 and they’ll get him at home for the second time in this World Series.
The Phillies have Wheeler and Nola available for the next two games. They’re in a solid position. But the offense will need to pick things up. It’s unlikely that the Phillies are able to.
I’ll take the Astros and the Under in tonight’s Game 6. This could be the final game of the MLB season.
Score Prediction: Astros 4 - Phillies 2
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.