Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, October 29, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The Philadelphia Phillies stole Game 1 of the World Series with a 6-5 come-from-behind win in Houston.
The Astros were up 5-0 in the third inning but didn’t score again, allowing the Phillies to rally all the way back in extra innings.
The Phillies now have the home-field advantage for the time being. They’ll also have a chance to win the World Series in Philadelphia next week after earning that win against the Astros on the road.
This series has the potential to play out just like Philadelphia’s series against the Padres did. Here are our picks and prediction for Game 2 of the World Series.
Framber Valdez Will Get Start for Astros
Framber Valdez will get the ball for Game 2 of the World Series. Valdez has a 1.42 ERA in the postseason this year and is holding an xFIP of 2.34 over the last 30 days.
The left-hander has earned 28.1% of strikeouts and has walked 7.3% of batters while allowing a BABIP of .306.
However, Valdez is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the game, earning 66.7% of ground balls over the last month. He’s also limited line drives to 16.7% in those last 30 days. He’s faced 83 righties over the last 30 days and has held them to a .280 wOBA and ISO of .092. Meanwhile, he’s been even more dominant against lefties, despite facing them 13 times over the last 30 days.
The Phillies have hit a .130 ISO and wOBA of .345 against lefties over the last 30 days. The only three hitters with a low wOBA against lefties include:
- Kyle Schwarber
- Rhys Hoskins
- J.T. Realmuto
Which is ironic, knowing that those three hitters are the top three hitters in the Philadelphia order.
Still, the Phillies have hit 26% of line drives and have limited ground balls to 37.5% against lefties over the last 30 days.
Zack Wheeler Gets Call for Phillies
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler will get the start for the Phillies in tonight’s game. Wheeler has a 1.78 ERA in the postseason and is holding a 1.85 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Wheeler has struck out close to 30% of batters over the last 30 days and has walked just 2.8%. He’s also held a BABIP of just .159 over the same time frame.
When Wheeler has hit, he’s allowed 40% of line drives over the last 30 days. But he’s been hard to hit. His wOBA and ISO numbers are very good against lefties and righties, limiting both categories at a high rate.
He’ll take on an Astros lineup that is hitting a .174 ISO and wOBA of .302 against righties over the last 30 days. Kyle Tucker is heating up with two home runs last night against the right-hander. Other batters who are hitting for power right now include:
- Jose Altuve
- Jeremy Pena
- Alex Bregman
- Chas McCormick
Still, the Astros have a low wOBA against righties and have hit just 20.1% of line drives over the last 30 days with their lineup against righties.
Phillies vs. Astros: Prediction and Betting Pick
Wheeler is the better pitcher on paper. His xFIP is sitting at 1.85 over the last 30 days and he’s been able to limit opponent’s BABIP to .159.
He’s also kept walks down and has been very precise for most of the year. As long as Wheeler keeps the ball out of the yard, which he’s done for most of the year, he’ll have a very solid outing against an Astros team that has a low wOBA against righties to begin with.
On the other hand, Framber Valdez is one of the more consistent pitchers in the league. However, he’s walked 7.3% of batters over the last 30 days and has allowed a BABIP of .306.
The Phillies will create more chaos on the base paths. While Valdez usually gets a high amount of grounders, a ground ball doesn’t automatically mean the player will be out. A ground ball can get through a hole and into the outfield and become a base hit.
Therefore, I’ve got the Phillies also taking Game 2 of the World Series on the road.
Score Prediction: Phillies 3 - Astros 1
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.