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Why Understanding the Weather Can Help You Win More MLB Bets

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Why Understanding the Weather Can Help You Win More MLB Bets
General view of the stadium while the game is under rain delay. Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP

There’s a reason why many sports bettors bet the over when the wind is blowing out to center field over 10 miles per hour. Let me explain… When it comes to weather, there are many factors to look at when betting on a baseball game. Let’s just get this out of the way first. Analytics matter more than the weather.

You must find a team that can bash whoever is on the mound. The wind doesn’t matter if the pitcher is going to strike most players out. When you find the right team that you believe will hit the ball well, you can then look at these five factors.

1. Precipitation

Precipitation matters because if there is rain in the forecast, there’s a good chance the game will get delayed or not played. Whenever there is rain, the advantage goes to the pitcher because it’s harder to see pitches when rain is coming down. Once you know there’s no rain in the forecast, you’ll have to check the temperature.

2. Temperature

The temperature is extremely important because the hotter it is outside, the more carry the ball will have. In a heatwave, gases expand and spread out more making air less dense. In the cold, air shrinks making the air denser. A 10-degree Fahrenheit change in temperature is worth three feet in distance. A ball that would’ve hit the fence could fall over the fence in hotter weather.

3. Humidity

Next, humidity is a factor. You’re going to want the ballpark to be humid because when the air becomes more humid, it holds more water molecules. If air has a higher density, it’s harder for the ball to go through the air. Humid conditions only give a couple of more inches for a ball in the air but that could be more than enough to change a double into a home run.

4. Altitude

Altitude also matters when it comes to weather conditions. In higher altitude areas, a ball stays in the air longer because air is denser at sea level and less dense the higher you go up.

5. Wind

Finally, wind speed plays a factor because the wind will literally push a ball over the fence if the wind is blowing out. Just like I said before, bettors will bet over on most games that have 10 miles per hour wind blowing out to the center field. If there’s wind blowing in, the ball will stay in the ballpark but if the wind is blowing out, there’s a legitimate chance the wind can push the ball over the fence.

Basically, if there’s five miles per hour wind blowing out to the center, it can increase the carry of the ball by around 20 feet. If the wind is blowing out by 10 miles per hour, it will blow the ball nearly 40 feet to the straightaway center if the wind is blowing in the direction of the outfield.

This is why it’s important to view the weather before betting on any baseball game. Like I said previously, numbers matter most. Find the team that you think can bash the opposition and then check the weather. If the weather and analytics match up at your favorite betting site, you’re looking at a really solid bet while taking analytics and weather into account.