Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s World Series action between Houston and Philadelphia. These two teams were scheduled to play Game 3 last night, but the game was postponed.
Despite the fact that Game 3 is taking place tonight, the starting pitcher matchup is different. This is because Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez required extra rest after entering Game 1 as a reliever. Suarez was originally scheduled to pitch Game 4, so Philadelphia gets his services earlier in the series than it had hoped for.
The series is tied 1-1 after both teams beat their opponent when it had its best starting pitcher on the mound. For reasons that I will explain, you should invest in some player props for this game at our best sportsbooks.
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Player to Hit the First Home Run in the Game
For this prop bet, we are investing in a certain player to hit the first home run in the game. There is also the option to bet that no home run will be hit, but this seems unlikely in view of the number of successful home run-hitters on each team.
Philadelphia's ballpark is nearly equal to Houston's in home runs per pitches thrown, suggesting that we won't see a reduction in the number of home runs now that the series has moved to the City of Brotherly Love.
Ranger Suarez Not That Trustworthy
A significant reason why I think that home runs will get hit in this game is Philadelphia starting pitcher Ranger Suarez. Because the prop bet asks us to choose the first player to hit a home run and because I dislike Suarez tonight, we should invest in an Astros batter with the expectation that he hits a home run against Suarez.
I dislike Suarez partly because he is relatively vulnerable to allowing home runs, especially for a ground ball-inducing pitcher.
People might be disinclined to expect an Astro to homer off of Suarez, because Suarez is a ground ball-inducing pitcher, and they think of Houston's Game 2 starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who excels at keeping batted balls on the ground.
But Suarez allows substantially more home runs per nine innings than Valdez does. In fact, when he faced Houston on October 4, he allowed 3 home runs in 3 innings.
He allowed 4 home runs in 12.2 innings in all of October, indicating that he remains vulnerable to allowing home runs even as his pitching form generally improves relative to his first-half performance, although he obviously struggled against Astros batters.
Suarez Against Right-Handed Batters
As is typical for a left-handed pitcher, Suarez is most vulnerable to allowing home runs to right-handed batters.
In the regular season, he allowed 0.95 home runs per nine innings to righties. For Houston, therefore, we should expect a right-handed batter to hit a home run off him.
I like Jeremy Pena to hit a home run off Suarez, although, of course, we might still win this bet if Pena hits a home run off a Philly reliever in Game 3.
Pena has been an excellent source of extra-base hits in general, of which he has 8 in 42 postseason at-bats thus far. In this postseason, he has hit 3 home runs.
He is especially likely to hit a left-handed pitcher hard, as in the regular season he slugged .493 against lefties compared to .402 against righties.
Home Run-Match Winner Parlay
For this bet to hit, we need two things to happen: the player we select must hit a home run and the team that we select must win.
Why Houston Will Win
I like Houston to win because of its advantageous starting pitcher matchup and deeper bullpen. The Astros match up well against Philly's starter, Ranger Suarez. They rank third in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties. Plus, they benefit from the fact that Jose Altuve is finally heating up as he has 7 hits in his last four games.
Conversely, Philadelphia ranks 13th in Astros starter Lance McCullers's favorite pitches from righties. McCullers, who is well-reputed for thriving in big games, features a healthy four-pitch combo that does not include the four-seam fastball, which is meaningful because the Phillies have been hitting specifically this pitch very well.
After McCullers, one of baseball's best bullpens at limiting opposing scoring will seal the deal. So with your MLB picks in mind, expect Houston to win and, for the above reasons, Jeremy Pena to hit a home run.
MLB Parlay Prop Pick: Jeremy Pena to Hit a Home Run / Houston Astros to Win (+500) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.