Today’s baseball card offers a lot to like. Here is a juicy three-leg parlay. Top sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in the Braves vs. Cubs, Brewers vs. Reds, and White Sox vs. Astros.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first two games and the moneyline for the third.
Feel free to parlay all three bets at online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Friday, June 17, 2022 – 02:20 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts regular catastrophe, Charlie Morton. Morton was great last year. But this year, he is a completely different pitcher. His strikeout rate is way down, and his walk and home run rates worsened significantly.
In a similar vein, he is struggling to prevent batters from elevating and making hard contact against his pitches. Most recently, he has continued to struggle. He has yielded four earned runs in four straight starts.
Cub Batters Against Morton
It is particularly likely that Morton continues to struggle tonight because he already has a terrible history in the Cubs' ballpark.
In his career, Morton is 1-4 with a 6.41 ERA in seven career starts at Wrigley Field. Among others, look out for Nico Hoerner who is 2-for-4 with a double in his career facing Morton.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Chicago starts Keegan Thompson today. Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, the "over" is on a 3-0 run in his starts.
Thompson's poor performances have contributed to his trends. After yielding a 5.06 ERA in St. Louis, he yielded a 21.00 ERA against Baltimore and then a 40.50 ERA against the Yankees.
Thompson Matches Terribly
Most especially, he promises to struggle today because he matches up terribly with Braves batters.
Primarily, Thompson throws a:
Together, these pitches make up close to 90 percent of his arsenal. Brave batters rank, by far, first in slugging against these three pitches combined from righties.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday, June 17, 2022 - 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
The Brewers start Eric Lauer who is in a solid bounce-back spot today. This season, Lauer always bounces back strongly after a poor performance -- a poor performance is defined by an ERA of 4.00 or worse in a given game.
After yielding a 6.23 ERA against Pittsburgh, he yielded a 1.50 ERA in his following start against Baltimore.
Later, he yielded a 7.20 ERA in his start against Miami, and he followed that start by shutting out Washington over seven innings.
Most recently, he yielded a 4.50 ERA against the Cubs, and then he limited the Padres to one earned run in six innings.
Red Batters Against Brewers
Lauer is in a great spot today also because he is pitching in Cincinnati's venue. In his career, Lauer owns a 2.25 ERA in three appearances in the Great American.
Who Starts for the Reds?
Cincinnati starts Hunter Greene whose ERA may make him look unreliable today. But recall that ERA is a season-long statistic, and it is a long season.
While ERA shows how a pitcher has performed over the course of the season, it may mislead one as to how a pitcher is performing in a given stretch of the season.
I love Greene today because he has strongly improved, yet the posted total for this game is so high as if Greene were still the poor pitcher that he had been.
Greene has yielded a sub-2.20 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in each of his last three starts, thriving even against teams that match up superbly with him.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (+115) with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Friday, June 17, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Lucas Giolito today. Giolito is in a great spot because he is pitching in Houston's ballpark.
In his career, Giolito boasts a 1.57 ERA in three starts in Minute Maid Park. His most recent start in Houston came in 2019 when he threw a complete-game shutout.
Most recently, he faced the Astros in 2021 when he again accomplished a complete game. He allowed one run.
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts lefty Framber Valdez. It is crucial to note that Valdez is a lefty because the White Sox bat .296 and slug .483 against lefties compared to batting .238 and slugging .350 against righties.
Look out, especially, for Andrew Vaughn, Yoan Moncada, and AJ Pollock. In at least four career at-bats against Valdez, Pollock slugs .500, Moncada .857, and Vaughn 1.200.
MLB Pick: White Sox (+156) with BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict for Today
With your MLB picks in mind, expect a high-scoring game between the Braves and Cubs, a low-scoring one between Milwaukee and Cincinnati, and a White Sox road upset.
For the above reasons, parlay the Braves/Cubs over, the Brewers/Reds under, and the White Sox ML. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Pick for Today
- Over 8 (-115)
- Under 9 (+115)
- White Sox (+156)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.