Today’s Plays Include a (+283) MLB Parlay

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Corey Kluber #28 of the Tampa Bay Rays delives a pitch to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning. Julio Aguilar/Getty Images/AFP

Today’s baseball card is attractive. Let’s take advantage of a parlay. Top sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action.

Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in Tampa Bay vs. Toronto and the Yankees vs. Guardians.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second.

Feel free to parlay both bets at online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Friday, July 1, 2022- 03:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

Who Is Starting for Tampa Bay?

There are three great mysteries in the world today: the identity of Jack the Ripper, the existence of aliens, and Corey Kluber being an underdog.

One might suggest that the Blue Jays deserve to be favored at home against most teams. While Tampa Bay and Toronto have about the same record, Toronto's home record is far superior to Tampa Bay's road record.

Blue Jays Are Not Unbeatable at Home

But the Blue Jays are far from unbeatable at home. At home, since sweeping the underperforming White Sox at the start of June, they've failed to win three of four possible series.

Others may claim that Tampa Bay deserves to be an underdog today because starter Corey Kluber isn't the pitcher that he used to be.

Blue Jays Stater Analysis

While this is true, it is, as I will explain shortly, much more radically true for today's Blue Jay starter.

Besides, Kluber was so good in his prime that he can be much worse than he used to be and still be a reliable pitcher.

Kluber's 2022 numbers -- 3.45 ERA and 3.58 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) appear all the more respectable when one considers the extent to which they are slanted by one catastrophic performance in which he yielded a 24.00 ERA in Anaheim.

Great Spot for Kluber

Kluber is in a great spot today because he is pitching during the day. In his career, Kluber has cultivated the reputation of being a superior daytime pitcher.

He yields a 2.94 ERA in 90 career daytime starts. This year, he has continued his career-long daytime success.

So far in this season, he's yielding a 2.14 ERA in eight daytime starts. While Kluber, overall, may not be the pitcher he was in his prime, his daytime success shows that, at this time of day, he is at least as capable as he ever was.

His daytime success has exercised a decisive impact in the betting world. In his daytime starts, the "under" is 6-2.

Who Starts for Toronto?

It is not like Tampa Bay hitters form the reason for Kluber's daytime "under" trend because their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is stronger during the day than at night.

One should have particular confidence in Ray hitters today because Jose Berrios starts for Toronto. Berrios' most recent form is catastrophically bad.

Jose Berrios Analysis

He is 0-2 in his last two starts, allowing six earned runs in four innings at the White Sox before, most recently, allowing eight earned runs in 2.2 innings in Milwaukee.

During this two-game span, Berrios surrendered a combined total of five earned runs. His FIP was over 13.00 in each game.

MLB Pick: Rays (+115) with BetOnline

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Friday, July 1, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field

Who Starts for the Yankees?

New York starts Gerrit Cole who continues to enjoy a strong season due to his most recent form.

In his last three starts, which came against Tampa Bay twice in a row and Houston, he allowed a combined total of two earned runs in 20.1 innings.

More extensively, he has yielded a sub-1.50 FIP in four of his last six starts. His success has continued on the road where his efforts help explain the following trend: the "under" is 5-2 in his road starts.

Cole's Ability

This trend reveals Cole's ability to succeed in a variety of ballparks away from home. Cleveland's ballpark is one of those ballparks. Cole, in his career, enjoys a 2.14 ERA in three starts in Progressive Field.

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Cleveland starts Aaron Civale who is becoming increasingly reliable as the season progresses.
His FIP has improved every month. In June, it was 2.80.

Therefore, he is not the disaster that he was in the early parts of the season. Civale merits optimism today particularly because he matches up well with the Yankees given the unique combo of pitches that he relies on.

Primarily, Civale throws a:

  • cutter
  • curveball
  • sinker

The Yankees rank 28th in slugging .367 against his favorite pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-105) with BetOnline

Parlay Verdict  

With your MLB picks, expect Tampa Bay to race past Toronto and the Yankees and Guardians to be locked in a pitcher's duel.

For the above reasons, parlay the Rays ML and the Yankees/Guardians under. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

Parlay Pick

  • Rays (+115)
  • Under 8 (-105)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+283) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.