BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks and betting sites have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in the Cubs vs. Yankees and Blue Jays vs. Tigers.
Below, I’ll break down the reasons why you should play the run-line for both games.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Yankees
Friday, June 10, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Chicago starts Wade Miley tonight for the first time since May 22. He strained his shoulder, and today is the first day on which he's eligible to return from the injured list.
Miley is in a bad spot today because he has taken so much time off. In terms of days of rest, Miley's ERA is at its worst when six days or more elapse between his starts.
One should therefore not expect strong form from Miley today. He may be quite rusty. Moreover, one should expect a poor performance from Miley today because he is pitching in the Yankees' venue. In seven career starts in Yankee Stadium, Miley is winless with a 6.48 ERA.
Chicago Cubs Team Rhythm
Team rhythm is a relatively important factor in baseball betting because teams play almost every day and their form tends to carry over from one game to the next.
Chicago's current pattern is that it is losing games. Currently, the Cubs are suffering a three-game losing streak.
New York Yankees Starter
Tonight, the Yankees start Luis Severino. Unlike Miley and unlike the Cubs as a whole, Severino enters tonight's game in strong form.
He is coming off a shutout at home. He has now accumulated two straight shutouts at home. This season, he has been magnificent to back in his starts at Yankee Stadium. So far, New York is 5-1 and yields +3.4 units in his home starts.
Cubs vs. Yankees Betting Pick
The Yanks must be particularly excited to play at home tonight also because they are 4-0 in their first home game after a road trip. They didn't win by multiple runs only in the one game that followed a couple of postponements.
MLB Pick: New York Yankees RL-1.5 (-120) with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, June 10, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
Who Starts for Toronto?
Toronto starts Jose Berrios tonight. One may be inclined to dismiss Berrios immediately because of his poor ERA. But doing so would constitute a great mistake because ERA is a season-long statistic, and it is a long season.
Berrios' season-long ERA is misleading because it does not reflect how he is performing in this particular phase of the season. One reason why I like Berrios today's baseball game is that his current form is strong.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three of his last four starts.
Berrios vs. Tiger Batters
Berrios' one poor recent start did come on the road. Indeed, one might try to suggest that Berrios is a bad bet tonight given his poor career ERA in Detroit's venue. However, Berrios' career ERA in Detroit is utterly misleading.
His career ERA in Comerica Park is high only because of his first two career starts there, which took place all the way back in 2016 and 2017 and which were ridiculously awful.
As a former Twin -- Minnesota plays in Detroit's division -- he has learned to pitch well in Comerica Park, and several recent starts attest to Berrios' reliability in the Tigers' ballpark.
Another reason why I like Berrios tonight is that he matches up excellently with Tiger batters:
- Primarily, Berrios throws a fastball, curveball, and sinker.
- These three pitches make up nearly 90 percent of his arsenal.
- Tiger batters rank 29th in slugging .338 against these pitches from righties.
Detroit Tigers Starter
Must-fade pitcher Elvin Rodriguez starts for the Tigers tonight. Rodriguez is a regular catastrophe even against teams, like the White Sox, that could not match up worse against his pitches from righties. Hence, the Tigers are yielding -3.8 units in his starts this year.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Highlights
- Toronto is in a great spot today since it is coming off a loss.
- The Blue Jays currently enjoy a 3-0 run after a loss. They've amassed a combined total of 28 runs in those three games.
MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays RL -1.5 (-135) with BetOnline
MLB Parlay Picks
With your MLB picks in mind, expect strong wins from the Yankees and Blue Jays today. For the above reasons, parlay both teams on the run-line.
- New York Yankees RL -1.5 (-120)
- Toronto Blue Jays RL -1.5 (-135)
Be sure to use BMR's parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.