Today’s Plays Include a (+409) MLB Parlay

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Jose Ramirez #11 of the Cleveland Guardians hits a double against the Minnesota Twins. Nick Cammett/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.

Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Marlins vs. Mets
  • Tigers vs. White Sox
  • Guardians vs. Royals

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for all three games.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Friday, July 08, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

Who Starts for the Marlins Tonight?

The Miami Marlins will start Pablo Lopez tonight. In view of his ERA, Lopez might look reliable tonight. However, his success has come overwhelmingly in Miami.

Whereas his home FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 2.84, his road FIP is 4.07. Lopez has had several awful performances on the road.

Lopez vs. Mets Batters

Of course, not all venues are built equally. Historically, Lopez is more uncomfortable in some than in others. Repeatedly, he performs terribly in the Mets' home venue. He is 0-3 with a 12.15 ERA in three career starts in Citi Field.

Who Starts for the Mets Tonight?

The New York Mets will start Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is feeling tip-top right now. He is coming off an extended period of rest. His last start took place on June 25 after testing positive for COVID.

Tonight's matchup presents a great opportunity to back Bassitt precisely because of the extra rest he's had. Off six or more days of rest, his ERA is 2.68, which is easily better than his ERA off five or fewer days of rest.

Team Form

The Marlin lineup is suffering markedly worse form than New York's.

Whereas the Marlins have scored a combined total of six runs in their past four games, excluding extra innings, the Mets have accrued seven runs or more in three of their last four games.

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Friday, July 08, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

Who Starts for the Tigers Tonight?

Detroit starts the utterly and consistently unreliable Tarik Skubal today. The Tigers have lost the last five games in which he's started. His poor performances largely explain this trend. Hence, he collected the loss in each of those starts.

During this five-game span, he yielded a combined total of 23 earned runs in his last 23 innings.

Skubal vs. White Sox Batters

Chicago's lineup matches up excellently against Skubal because it has one of the best lefty-smashing lineups. The White Sox rank second in slugging against southpaws (.452).

Look out for Jose Abreu in this matchup, for example. Abreu is slugging .519 against lefties.

Who Starts for the White Sox Tonight?

The Chicago White Sox will start Lucas Giolito. Giolito is enjoying strong form, having yielded a sub-two FIP in both of his last two starts.

Giolito vs. Tiger Batters

Tonight, Giolito looks particularly promising because he matches up excellently against Tiger batters given the pitches that he throws.

Primarily, Giolito throws a fastball, slider, and changeup. These pitches combine to make up almost 97 percent of his arsenal. By far, Detroit ranks last in slugging .321 against these pitches from righties.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals

Friday, July 08, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium

Who Starts for the Guardians Tonight?

Cleveland starts Aaron Civale today. Civale is coming off a pair of tough starts in which he allowed a combined total of seven earned runs in 10 innings against the Red Sox and Yankees.

Civale vs. Royal Batters

While his opponent tonight, Kansas City, averages fewer runs per game than Civale's last two opponents, Civale nonetheless remains in a terrible spot.

Historically, Civale performs terribly in Kansas City's venue. In three career starts at Kauffman Stadium, he has a 5.65 ERA. This negative history is consistent with Civale's overall struggles away from home.

Outside of Cleveland, opponents are hitting .345 and slugging .598 against Civale.

Who Starts for the Royals Tonight?

Kansas City starts Brady Singer tonight. Singer has, overall, not been a profitable pitcher to back. Exceptionally, the Royals are yielding +2.6 units in his four starts against division opponents.

Singer vs. Guardian Batters

Singer looks particularly reliable for tonight's matchup because the Guardians rank below-average in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties. Plus, Cleveland is cold, having mustered a combined total of 11 runs in its past six games.

Jose Ramirez, whom Cleveland relies on so heavily, is crucially cold right now. He is batting .143 and slugging .238 so far in July.

Parlay Verdict

For your MLB picks, expect wins on:

  • Mets ML (-155)
  • White Sox ML (-161)
  • Royals ML (-110)

Given the fact that the Mets and White Sox are favored so heavily, feel free to play them on the run-line. Be sure to use our free parlay calculator for your betting needs.

MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+409) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.