Today’s Plays Include a (+330) MLB Parlay

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Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros reacts to striking out Taylor Trammell #20 of the Seattle Mariners. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Mariners vs. Astros and Cubs vs. Giants.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run line for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Friday, July 29, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

Who Is Pitching for the Mariners Today?

Seattle starts Robbie Ray tonight. Recently, Ray demonstrates a disturbing tendency to allow more home runs.

He has allowed 2 homers in both of his last starts. More extensively, he has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past four starts.

This tendency is particularly worrisome for him because the Astros like to rely on hitting home runs in order to score more runs. They rank third in home runs per game with a greater proportion of their home runs coming in their ballpark.

Ray Against Astros' Batters 

Before tonight, Ray has faced Houston twice this season. In both starts, he yielded a FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) over 11.

Ray's gross struggles this year against the Astros are consistent with his career-long difficulties in Minute Maid Park. He suffers a 5.31 ERA in four career starts in Houston.

Among others, expect big things from Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker. Altuve is 11-for-19 with a 1.158 slugging rate in his career with Ray on the mound. Tucker, moreover, enjoys an even more absurd 1.429 slugging rate in seven at-bats facing Ray.

Who Is Pitching for the Astros Today?

The ever-venerable Justin Verlander starts for Houston tonight. By a significant margin, Verlander is his team's most profitable pitcher for bettors to back.

On the season, Verlander is yielding +6.85 units. Pertinently to my best bet for this game, he has been particularly profitable to back against division rivals. When the Astros are facing a fellow AL West team and have Verlander on the mound, they are 8-2, yielding +4.9 units.

Verlander's strong form contributes to his season-long profitability. The Astros have won the last five games in which Verlander started largely because of his reliability on the mound. He has yielded one earned run or fewer in each of those five starts.

His most recent victims include the Mariners, who he has now locked down in four of five starts against them this year, and the Yankees.

MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (+125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Friday, July 29, 2022 - 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Who Is Pitching for the Cubs Today?

The Cubs start Marcus Stroman tonight. Stroman has been horribly unprofitable for bettors to back this year, but, lately, it hasn't been his fault.

It is not his fault when the Cubs score a combined total of 8 runs in his last three starts. Perhaps the lack of run support is keeping Stroman on his toes.

In any case, he has allowed a combined total of 2 earned runs in his last three starts. During this three-game span, he thrived in Dodger Stadium and likewise handled the Mets and Phillies.

Stroman's Favorite Pitches

Given his season-long opposing ground-ball stats, it is evident that Stroman has become much less of a ground-ball pitcher than in prior years. However, he induced ground balls at a superbly high rate in each of his last three starts.

The sinker is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch, and he throws it much less often this year. But he has other weapons to induce ground balls or soft contact.

In particular, opponents are hitting .220 against his slider, which is .002 higher than against his sinker.

Stroman Against Giants' Batters

Stroman merits more optimism tonight because the Giants rank 21st in slugging against his pitches (he also throws a fastball, cutter, and split-finger) from righties.

Since the second half of the season began, they rank 30th in the category, slugging .229 against Stroman's pitches.

Who Is Pitching for the Giants Today?

San Francisco starts Alex Cobb tonight. Similar to Stroman, Cobb demonstrates great form.

Cobb enters tonight's game having yielded a FIP below 2.70 in five of his last six starts.

Crucially, his strong form has persisted even when facing teams, such as the Dodgers, that match up positively against him.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at BetOnline

MLB Parlay Verdict 

With your MLB picks, expect a strong win from Houston and a low-scoring pitcher's duel in San Francisco.

For the above reasons, parlay the Astros run line with the Under. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks for Today

  • Mariners vs. Astros: Astros -1.5 (+125)
  • Cubs vs. Giants: Under 7.5 (-110)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+330) at BetOnline

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Two-Legged Parlay (+330)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.