Today’s Plays Include a (+287) MLB Parlay

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Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts as he walks to the dugout after pitching during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals. Scott Kane/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates and Braves vs. Rockies.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the run-line for the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at a top sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Friday, June 03, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at PNC Park

Who Pitches for the Diamondbacks Today?

Arizona starts Merrill Kelly, who would be a much more profitable pitcher if he didn't have to face the mighty Dodgers three times.

Despite the tougher competition, Kelly is enjoying a career-best 3.29 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) this season.

On the surface, one large reason why this season is the best one in his four-year professional career is that he is doing a much better job of limiting home runs and hard contact.

Merrill Kelly's Favorite Pitches

Kelly is a better pitcher this year because his pitch quality is greater. He already benefits from having a nice level of variety in his repertoire. Kelly throws five pitches:

  • Fastball
  • Changeup
  • Cutter
  • Curveball
  • Sinker

He throws all five pitches with over 10% frequency while not throwing a single one with as much as 30% frequency.

Heat maps illustrate the greatness of his control. He ably locates his pitches away from the more middle parts of the strike zone and successfully targets the edges where pitches are generally harder to make strong contact against.

His individual pitches are also stronger in other respects. For example, his fastball averages higher velocity this year. This improvement helps explain why this pitch is yielding a vastly lower BA and slugging rate this year compared to last year.

Merrill Kelly vs. Pirates' Batters

Kelly's numbers against active Pirates' batters look promising. Only one active Pirate has a hit off him, and it was a single.

Expect Kelly's success against Pirates' players to continue because he matches up well against them. They rank 25th in slugging against Kelly's favorite pitches from righties.

His favorite pitches are the fastball, changeup, and cutter, which make up almost three-quarters of his arsenal.

Who Pitches for the Pirates Today?

Pittsburgh starts JT Brubaker. Compared with Kelly, Brubaker is more reliant on fewer pitches.

Brubaker throws a sinker and slider, which make up nearly 70% of his arsenal.

Arizona promises to thrive against Brubaker tonight because they rank fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-102) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)


Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies

Friday, June 03, 2022 - 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field

Who Pitches for the Braves Today?

Atlanta starts southpaw Max Fried. Primarily, Fried throws a fastball, curveball, and slider.

These are the three pitches that he throws over 20% of the time. Together, they make up about 75% of his arsenal.

Despite his strong surface-level stats, Fried is a vulnerable pitcher. Most notably, his fastball is his favorite pitch, yet it yields a .317 BA and .512 slugging rate.

Fried vs. Rockies' Batters

While Fried's other pitches are obviously better, he's benefitted from facing many teams that don't hit his favorite pitches well. So far, his toughest test was the Cubs, which rank sixth in slugging against his three favorite pitches from lefties. When he faced the Cubs, he yielded a 4.48 FIP.

I like Colorado's lineup tonight because it matches up even better against Fried than Chicago. In fact, the Rockies rank first in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.

Colorado also owns the best numbers against left-handed pitchers in general. For example, look out for Brendan Rodgers who bats .361 and slugs .639 against lefties.

Who Pitches for the Rockies Today?

Colorado starts Chad Kuhl, its most profitable pitcher. Overall, Kuhl is yielding +2.2 units in his starts.

Kuhl relies primarily on a sinker-slider combo. These pitches make up nearly 80% of his arsenal.

His most challenging opponent has been San Francisco, which matches up well against him. Conversely, the Braves rank 24thin slugging .337 against his two favorite pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Rockies RL +1.5 (-105) at BetOnline


MLB Parlay Verdict 

For your MLB picks, expect a road win from Arizona in Pittsburgh and an upset win from Colorado.

The Rockies are such big underdogs that we may as well take the extra run and grab them on the run-line for cheap. I don't like to be greedy.

For the above reasons, parlay the Diamondbacks ML and the Rockies RL. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks for Today

  • Diamondbacks ML (-102)
  • Rockies RL +1.5 (-105)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+287) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.