Editor’s Note: Rangers vs. Yankees game was postponed due to rain and moved to a doubleheader on Sunday.
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Rangers vs. Yankees and Rockies vs. Diamondbacks.
For reasons that I will explain, should play the run-line in the first game and the money-line in the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at an online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Friday, May 06, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Who Starts for the Rangers Today?
Rangers' starter Glenn Otto primarily throws a fastball, slider, and curveball. Of these three pitches, his fastball is the one he throws most often -- he does so with 39% frequency.
This pitch should be yielding a way higher slugging rate than it does. "Should" is an assessment informed objectively by metrics.
That is, based on the launch angle and exit velocity that batters are hitting Otto's fastball with, opponents should be slugging .759 against this pitch.
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After all, his fastball is not a good one. Based on percentiles, it is subpar in terms of both spin and velocity.
Moreover, heat maps show that he frequently leaves this pitch in middle parts of the plate where batters typically have an easier time making contact. In other words, his fastball itself is subpar and he locates it poorly.
Otto vs. Yankees' Batters
With our MLB picks in mind, I like Yankees' batters tonight because they rank fifth in slugging against Otto's three favorite pitches from righties.
So many New York hitters look dangerous tonight. Giancarlo Stanton, for example, enters this game with a nine-game hitting streak.
Aaron Judge had an eight-game hitting streak before his last game. He has yet to produce two consecutive hitless outings.
Who Starts for the Yankees Today?
Yankees' starter Gerrit Cole has finally found his form. He is coming off two shutouts: he shut out the Royals over six innings and the Guardians over 6.2 innings.
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Cole's fastball is a nice one: its velocity and spin rate are both very high. This pitch is so difficult to hit that the Guardians rank second in slugging against the fastball from righties but managed one single off this pitch when they faced Cole.
Cole vs. Rangers' Batters
The fastball is particularly important to Cole because, based on pitch frequency, it is easily his favorite pitch.
I like Cole tonight because the Rangers rank last in slugging against the fastball from righties and it isn't particularly close.
Cole just dominated another team that is very weak against the fastball just like he dominated the Guardians with this pitch. He will make Texas his third straight victim tonight.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, May 06, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Who Starts for the Diamondbacks Today?
Starter Merrill Kelly is enjoying a breakout year for the Diamondbacks. This is his fourth professional season. Before 2022, his best FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in a season was 3.99. This year, his FIP is 2.10.
He has improved in many slight ways that contribute to this massive overall improvement.
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Based on pitch frequency, he has injected greater variety into his arsenal. In addition to yielding less hard contact in general, he has yet to allow a home run this season.
Kelly is well-tested, too, having yielded a solid FIP against an Astros team that matches up well against his favorite pitches and against the Dodgers.
Who Starts for the Rockies Today?
Rockies' starter Chad Kuhl seems to be performing superbly this season based on ERA. However, his excellent 1.90 ERA is driven by an unsustainably low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His .177 BABIP is surprising given the high rate at which he is yielding hard contact. It is only a matter of time until lineups start producing lots of runs against him.
He has surely benefitted from the fact that two of the teams he's faced are the lowly Reds and Tigers, which rank bottom-three in runs per game.
Kuhl vs. Diamondbacks' Batters
Now, skeptics are right to point out that Arizona also ranks low in runs per game. However, the point is the matchup.
Kuhl primarily throws a slider-sinker combo. These pitches make up nearly 80% of his arsenal.
Whereas the Tigers and Reds rank bottom-seven in slugging against these pitches from righties, Arizona ranks second in the category.
The Diamondbacks will thus hit tonight as if they were a top-level lineup. One guy who will help them is Pavin Smith, who is slugging .692 in May.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-138) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
Expect the Yankees to do Yankee things at home against Texas while Arizona's hot starter takes advantage of Colorado venturing outside of Coors Field.
For the above reasons, parlay the Yankees run-line with the Diamondbacks money-line for your best bets.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Yankees 1.5 (-115)
- Diamondbacks ML (-138)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+222) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.