Today’s MLB Parlay (+664) Features Surprising Diamondback Pitcher Ryne Nelson

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Ryne Nelson #52 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 12, 2022. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action and three games, in particular, interest me as investing in:

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first two games and the run-line for the third.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Sunday, September 18, 2022 – 04:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium

Who Starts for Seattle?

Marco Gonzales starts for Seattle today. While this game might start in the late afternoon in your time zone, don't forget that it is taking place in California.

Time is important because Gonzales prefers to pitch during the day. So far, his daytime ERA is 2.95 in 10 starts.

His strengthened ability to pitch during the day contributes to the fact that the "under" is 7-3 in his daytime starts.

Gonzales vs. Angel Batters

Seattle's southpaw throws a:

  • Fastball
  • Changeup
  • Cutter
  • Curveball

Amounting to a nice presentation of variety, these pitches are all common features of his arsenal -- he throws them with between 13 and 37 percent frequency.

Angel batters look unreliable today because, generally one of baseball's worst lefty-hitting teams, they rank 26th in slugging against Gonzales' pitches from lefties.

Who Starts for the Angels?

Reid Detmers starts for the Angels today. Similar to Gonzales, Detmers is in a solid "under" situation.

The "under" is hitting in 66.7 percent of his home starts and in 75 percent of his daytime starts. He is especially at his best during the day: his ERA is 2.53 in four daytime starts.

Detmers vs. Mariner Batters

Whereas Detmers improves during the day, Mariner hitting numbers drop in the daytime.

Already presenting one of baseball's weaker lineups against left-handed pitching, Seattle looks unreliable today because Detmers has a promising 3.12 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners.


San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Sunday, September 18, 2022 - 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field

Who Starts for San Diego?

Yu Darvish starts for the Padres today. Darvish is a strong "under" pitcher and it's hitting in 68 percent of his starts overall and in 69.2 percent of his road starts.

Darvish in Arizona

Now, of course, not all road venues are alike. Arizona is unique because it is situated within the very dry climate of Phoenix. But Darvish has proven his ability to thrive in this unique climate.

In his first start of the season, he shut out Arizona over the course of six innings in Arizona. This start is consistent with Darvish's overall success this season against the Diamondbacks.

So far, he is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts against them. One may thus expect him to keep his team competitive.

Who Starts for Arizona?

Darvish will need to limit Arizona's scoring output because Ryne Nelson is starting today. The Diamondback rookie is taking the league by storm.

After shutting out the mighty Dodgers in six innings, he has allowed a combined total of six hits and zero runs in 13 innings.

Nelson vs. Padre Batters

Nelson relies heavily on his fastball, which is great news for him. The Padres rank 28th in slugging against the fastball thrown by righties.

They will be no match for Nelson's high-velocity, unusually moving variation of this pitch.


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

Sunday, September 18, 2022 - 07:00 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Who Starts for Los Angeles?

Andrew Heaney starts for the Dodgers today. While Heaney allowed a lot of runs in his last start against San Francisco, a deeper dive suggests that he is sure to bounce back against this same team. His xFIP in that start was a superb 2.90. FIP is like ERA but factors out fielding, while xFIP is like FIP but adjusts for the league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs.

Plus, San Francisco ranks ninth-to-last against Heaney's favorite pitches from lefties.

Sweep Situation

While the Dodgers may seem to be inclined to relax in sweep situations because they lost to lesser opponents, San Francisco is an exception.

In the second half of the season, L.A. has swept the Giants twice, winning the series finale both times.

The Dodgers remain focused in the series finale against the Giants because they are rivals.

Who Starts for San Francisco?

Alex Cobb starts for the Giants with his unusual split finger-sinker combo.

The Dodgers are in a great spot today because they rank first, by far, in slugging .532 against these two pitches from righties.

Their ongoing 10-3 run includes 10 wins by multiple runs. Expect another big win today.

Parlay Verdict

With your MLB picks, expect low-scoring games in Anaheim and Phoenix plus a big Dodger win. Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your betting needs.

Parlay Picks

  • Mariners/Angels Under 8.5 (+100)
  • Padres/Diamondbacks Under 8 (+100)
  • Dodgers RL (-1.5) (-110)

MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+664) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.