Today’s MLB Parlay (+260) Features Overlooked Pitchers Ready to Dominate

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The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in for today’s MLB Parlay:

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total in both games.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners

Sunday, August 28, 2022 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Aaron Civale starts for Cleveland today. Consideration of his high ERA may suggest that he is an unreliable pitcher. But his ERA masks a FIP that is 1.68 lower (like ERA but factors out fielding).

The latter stats indicate how well he has actually been performing.

Indeed, his ERA is starting to drop, approaching an alignment with his FIP. Not counting his one-inning start on July 13, he has allowed a combined total of five runs in his past four starts. During this stretch of starts, he yielded a sub-two FIP three times.

Civale's Improvement

Civale improved considerably in the second half of the season.

Whereas his FIP was 4.24 in the first half, it is 1.69 so far in the second. One respect in which he has improved is in the number of home runs that he has allowed.

He allowed 1.33 per nine innings before the All-Star Break while he has surrendered none since then. Especially in April and May, Civale struggled with the long ball.

During this time, Civale went through a stretch of starts in which he allowed six home runs in five games. But no opponent has hit a home run off him since July 2. Moreover, Civale has become more reliable in terms of limiting the number of free passes to first base that he concedes by walking batters.

Civale vs. Mariner Batters

Seattle is already very much an "under" team during the day because its lineup tends to underperform in day games. To be exact, the "under" is hitting in 57.4-percent in the Mariners' daytime games.

During the day, Seattle slugs .20 worse than it does at night. Moreover, the M's rank well below average against Civale's favorite pitches from righties.

Who Starts for Seattle?

Robbie Ray starts for Seattle today.

Pertinently to my best bet for this game, he has been a strong "under" pitcher during the day. The "under" is hitting in 62.5 percent of his daytime starts.

Ray also brings strong form into today's game. While lasting six or more innings in each of them, he has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his four starts.

Ray vs. Guardian Batters

A southpaw, Ray matches up excellently against Guardian batters.

Primarily, he throws a:

  • Fastball
  • Slider
  • Sinker

These three pitches make up just over 97 percent of his arsenal.

Cleveland's lineup merits particular pessimism today for ranking last-place by far in slugging .320 against these pitches from lefties.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Sunday, August 28, 2022 - 01:35 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Who Starts for Tampa Bay?

Corey Kluber starts for the Rays today.

He looks to build off a pair of strong starts in which he allowed two runs in six innings against the Yankees on August 17 and one run in six innings against the Angels on August 23. Moreover, he is primed to continue his solid run of success against Red Sox batters.

Despite having to face them in back-to-back starts, which is normally tough for a pitcher to have to do, he allowed two runs in 12 innings, yielding a sub-1.50 FIP both times.

Kluber vs. Red Sox Batters

By far, Kluber favors his:

  • Cutter
  • Curveball
  • Sinker

These three pitches make up almost 90 percent of his arsenal.

Boston batters match up poorly against Kluber in that they rank 10th-to-last against these pitches from righties.

Who Starts for Boston?

Nick Pivetta starts for Boston today.

In his one start against Tampa Bay this year, on July 5, Pivetta was unfortunate to yield a .421 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a great job of generating soft contact.

His 3.30 FIP in that start reflects how well he actually performed.

Pivetta should perform well against Tampa Bay batters because they rank 24th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.


Parlay Verdict

With your MLB picks, expect low-scoring games in Seattle and Boston. Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your betting needs.

Parlay Picks:

  • Guardians/Mariners Under 7 (+100)
  • Rays/Red Sox Under 9 (-125)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+260) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.