Today’s MLB Parlay (+247) Features Streaking Seattle Mariners

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Shortstop J.P. Crawford #3 of the Seattle Mariners catches Steven Kwan #38 of the Cleveland Guardians stealing second on September 03, 2022. Jason Miller/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released the MLB odds for today’s baseball action and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line for the first game and the total for the second.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Sunday, September 04, 2022 – 02:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field

Who Starts for Seattle?

George Kirby starts for Seattle today. Overall, Kirby still isn't very profitable to back, because he struggled at the beginning of the season.

However, Seattle has won four of the last five and seven of the last nine games in which he started, and his strong form is a significant reason why. During this nine-game span, Kirby allowed more than two runs a single time.

In the one exception, he allowed three runs in Angel Stadium because he yielded a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was unfortunately high given the great success with which he limited hard contact.

In fact, as odd as it is to say, Kirby has been rather unlucky in terms of the number of runs he's allowed. During this nine-start span, he yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) under 2.00 eight times. He achieved a still excellent 2.12 FIP in that the one exception.

Why Is Kirby So Good?

One impressive fact about Kirby is that he has yet to walk more than a batter in a single start. Two further facts about Kirby help him avoid walking batters.

  1. He excels at starting ahead of the count. His first-pitch strike percentage is 65.7.
  2. He does an above-average job of getting batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone.

Their swing percentage at pitches outside the strike zone is 33.3.

Kirby's Pitches

Kirby's pitch selection is intelligent in that he throws his best pitch -- his fastball -- most often. Opponents hit .211 and slug .335 against this pitch. They struggle with its mixture of above-average velocity and strong location.

He ably locates it in different parts of and around the strike zone. After cutting out the cutter from his repertoire, Kirby focuses on his sinker, curveball, and slider in addition to throwing his fastball almost half the time.

Kirby matches up well with Cleveland batters in that they, overall, rank well below average against his favorite pitches from righties. In their rather neutral (as opposed to being a pitcher- or hitter-friendly) ballpark, the Guardians slug .355 against Kirby's favorite pitches from righties.

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland today. Quantrill's ERA looks attractive, but it masks a much poorer 4.28 FIP, which reflects how poorly he is actually performing while he's benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP.

Quantrill vs. Mariner Batters

Mariner hitters merit optimism today because, outside of their uniquely pitcher-friendly ballpark, they hit Quantrill's pitches very well from righties.

Primarily, Quantrill features a sinker and cutter. In road games, Seattle slugs .426 against both pitches from righties.

Seattle's Win Streak

Collectively, the Mariners enjoy a strong team rhythm.

They enter today on a six-game win streak with all their wins coming by multiple runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants

Sunday, September 04, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Who Starts for Philadelphia?

Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia today. Suarez is your fairly classic ground-ball pitcher.

He primarily throws sinkers in order to induce a ground ball out. This season, he's inducing ground balls with 56.3-percent frequency.

Suarez vs. Giant Batters

Giant batters match up excellently with Suarez in two key respects.

  1. They excel against ground ball-inducing pitchers. They slug .428 against them compared to .385 against fly ball-inducing ones.
  2. They hit his pitches very well.

Primarily, Suarez throws a changeup and fastball in addition to his sinker.

The Giants rank fourth in slugging against his three favorite pitches from lefties.

Who Starts for the Giants?

Carlos Rodon starts for San Francisco. Rodon relies primarily on a fastball and slider.

As heat maps show, he is not shy about throwing either pitch around the middle parts of the strike zone.

Philly Batters' Outlook Today

The Phillies merit optimism for ranking seventh in slugging against Rodon's favorite pitches from lefties.

Plus, they are in an intense situation today as they try to avoid being swept by San Francisco. As their series finales against Colorado, Atlanta, and Arizona have shown, they often produce superb scoring outputs when facing a sweep.

Parlay Verdict

With your MLB picks for today, expect a solid Seattle win and a high-scoring fest in San Francisco. For the above reasons, parlay the Mariners' money-line and the Phillies/Giants "over."

Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your betting needs.

Parlay Picks

  • Seattle Mariners ML (-122)
  • Phillies/Giants Over 7.5 (-110)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+247) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.