The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line for the first game and the total for the second in this AL East division extravaganza.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, September 26, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Who Starts for the Yankees?
Luis Severino starts today for the Yankees. Severino is finding his footing after enduring a long stint on the IL. After having previously started his last game on July 13, Severino came back to face Pittsburgh on September 21. The Pirates posed, arguably, the easiest possible test.
Ranking 27th in runs per game, the Pirates are so bad that it's hard to derive much optimism for Severino from this one test.
Severino History vs. Toronto
After succeeding in his first start against Toronto, Blue Jay batters have returned with vengeance every time. On May 10, Severino failed to complete five innings against the Blue Jays while allowing three earned runs.
In his most recent start against them, he allowed five earned runs in five innings against them. A division rival, Toronto knows Severino quite well and gets to face a possibly weakened version of himself in this game.
Severino vs. Blue Jay Batters
Primarily, Severino throws a:
These three pitches combine to make up 93 percent of his arsenal.
Blue Jay batters merit optimism tonight because they rank seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, Pittsburgh ranks 25th in the category, further illustrating the extended challenge that Toronto batters pose to Severino tonight.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays today. Any concern elicited by Gausman's two consecutive tough starts must be put to rest because he has, most recently, bounced back in a strong fashion.
In his last start, Gausman allowed zero runs in six innings on the road against a tough Philadelphia lineup.
Gausman vs. Yankee Batters
Of course, a pitcher's last start hardly offers any fair indication of how he will perform in his next start. Gausman's latest triumph only elicits confidence in his current form.
What does make Gausman look particularly reliable tonight is his recent history against Yankee batters.
He is yielding a 1.42 ERA against them after starting against them twice.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, September 26, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Jordan Lyles starts for the Orioles tonight. Lyles is coming off an absolute gem.
However, he achieved this gem against Detroit's anemic lineup. His two starts before that offer a more reliable insight into how tonight will go.
Specifically, in those two starts, he allowed four earned runs in five innings against Toronto and eight earned runs in 3.2 innings against Boston. Fellow AL East teams, the ones that know Lyles the best, are repeatedly using their familiarity with him to hit him hard.
Lyles vs. Red Sox Batters
Lyles' most recent debacle against the Red Sox is consistent with his career-long struggles against them. With a strong career data sample, his ERA against them is worse than his career ERA against any other team.
To be exact, he suffers a 6.98 ERA in eight career starts against Boston.
Active Red Sox batters justify confidence in their production tonight. Among others, Rafael Devers, Tommy Pham, and Enrique Hernandez have excellent track records against him.
All three batters slug well over .650 in at least 10 career at-bats with Lyles on the mound.
Who Starts for Boston?
With nothing to lose, Boston is starting youngster Connor Seabold tonight. Seabold is starting in a professional game for the sixth time in his career.
Last year, he made his debut and yielded a 6.00 ERA. This season shows that he is still struggling to gain his professional footing.
Among other things, he does a terrible job of limiting walks and home runs, which means that runs come cheaply against him.
To be exact, he's yielding 3.31 walks and 2.20 home runs per nine innings.
When he does leave the game, one of baseball's lesser bullpens, in terms of limiting opposing scoring, will struggle to prevent the game from becoming even higher-scoring.
With your MLB picks, expect a strong Toronto win and a high-scoring contest in Boston.
Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Blue Jays ML (-120)
- Orioles/Red Sox Over 9.5 (-115)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.