Today’s MLB Parlay (+242) Features the Guardians Striving for AL Central Title

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Aaron Civale #43 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 20, 2022. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for Sunday’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Guardians vs. Rangers
  • Rockies vs. Padres

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line for the first game and the total for the second.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 02:35 PM EDT at Globe Life Field

Team Rhythm

In a sense, consideration of team rhythm may reasonably transcend that of starting pitcher matchups. By valuing the former, we make sense of how a team's win streak or losing streak persists literally no matter who starts for them.

Cleveland is one team that is winning no matter who their starter is. Currently, the Guardians enjoy a six-game win streak.

After winning key games against division rivals Twins and White Sox, they are continuing their win streak in Texas. They are playing their best baseball at just the right time, but today is the last day on which one may reasonably take advantage of Cleveland's excellent form.

The Guardians need to win one more game in order to win the AL Central division, and then their mindset after winning the division will make them unreliable in their next game.

They will be celebrating and thus, perhaps, not sufficiently concentrated. But until they win the division, this is a team on a mission, one that is collectively playing consistently and reliably extremely well.

Who Starts for Cleveland?

While Cleveland would win no matter who starts for them, it does help their case today all the more that Aaron Civale is starting. Like his team as a whole, Civale enters this game in superb form. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts.

Now that the Guardians have won four of the last five games in which he started, he counts as a solidly profitable pitcher for bettors to back.

This is especially so on the road, where Cleveland is yielding +3.8 units in his starts.

Who Starts for Texas?

Cole Ragans starts for the Rangers today. Ragans is a rookie trying to find a professional footing for a team with nothing to play for.

His youth goes ways to explain his horrible ongoing tendency to concede walks and home runs. Given his tendency to make many mistakes, runs come cheaply for his opponent.

Ragans vs. Guardian Batters

But Cleveland also won't need gifts from Ragans because they match up well against him in view of their current form and in view of his pitching repertoire.

Ragans throws, primarily, a:

  • Fastball
  • Changeup
  • Cutter

These three pitches make up about 94 percent of his arsenal.

Since their current win streak began on September 19, the Guardians rank seventh in slugging .588 against these pitches from lefties.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field

Who Starts for San Diego?

Mike Clevinger starts for San Diego as he looks to build off his last, shutout performance against the Cardinals.

Clevinger is known for the variety in his pitch selection and for the ways in which he plays his different pitches off each other.

Clevinger vs. Rockie Batters

Primarily, Clevinger throws a:

  • Fastball
  • Slider
  • Cutter
  • Sinker
  • Changeup

Rockie batters merit pessimism today because they rank 26th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties even though they play half their games in hitters-friendly Coors Field.

While one may insist that Clevinger is unreliable because his last opponent was struggling to hit any pitcher, the Rockies are also struggling to hit.

The Rockies have failed to exceed three runs through nine innings in each of their last five games, although these games all took place at home.

Who Starts for Colorado?

Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies today. He enters today's game having allowed two earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts.

Freeland has been sharpest in his last three games, allowing a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in each of them. Plus, the Padres rank below average in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.

Parlay Verdict

With your MLB picks, expect a strong win from Cleveland and a pitcher's duel in Colorado. For the above reasons, parlay the Guardians money-line and Padres/Rockies "under." Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your betting needs.

Parlay Picks

  • Guardians ML (-133)
  • Padres/Rockies Under 10.5 (-105)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+242) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.