It’s Sunday and the top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in today:
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run-line for the first two games and the money-line for the third.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:37 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Who Starts for Boston?
Michael Wacha starts for the Red Sox today. As the season draws to a close, Wacha's form is deteriorating.
After yielding a 6.12 FIP against the Yankees on September 22, he allowed six earned runs in 3.1 innings in Baltimore in his most recent start.
Wacha vs. Blue Jay Batters
Primarily, Wacha throws a:
These four pitches combine to make up almost 93 percent of his arsenal. Toronto batters look reliable today because they rank third in slugging .463 against Wacha's favorite pitches from righties.
Plus, Blue Jay batters are hot in general. They've scored a combined total of 19 runs in their first two games in this series against Boston.
Evidently, they are determined to play their best baseball at just the right time of year.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays. Unlike Wacha, Gausman is pitching excellently.
Before yielding two runs in 6.1 innings against the Yankees in his last start, he shut out Philadelphia over the course of six innings.
Gausman vs. Red Sox Batters
Importantly, Gausman thrives against the Red Sox when they face him in Toronto.
In two starts against them in Toronto, Gausman has allowed zero earned runs in 13 innings.
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sunday, October 02, 2022 - 01:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Max Castillo, an unprepared rookie, starts for the Royals who have nothing to lose in having such a starter today. Castillo's lack of readiness for professional baseball is evident in the high rates at which he allows walks and home runs.
These negative tendencies translate to awful results. Most recently, he has allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in his past four innings pitched.
Castillo and Company vs. Guardian Batters
Castillo matches up poorly against Guardian batters in view of his pitching repertoire. He favors a:
Together, these three pitches make up just over 96 percent of his arsenal. Cleveland ranks 10th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
When Castillo departs -- he'll probably only last a few innings -- Kansas City's bullpen will have a ton of work to do.
Problematically, the Royals' bullpen owns the third-worst ERA in the MLB.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
The ever-reliable Shane Bieber starts for the Guardians today. Bieber has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
He particularly enjoys facing the Royals because he is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA in two starts against them this year.
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, October 02, 2022 - 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Lance Lynn starts for Chicago today. Lynn finally gets a favorable matchup.
In his last two starts, he faced division rivals, one of which was a sizzling Guardian lineup and the other was a Twin team that hits his pitches well.
Lynn vs. Padre Batters
Padre batters are neither sizzling nor do they hit Lynn's pitches well. Lynn mostly throws his fastball and cutter.
San Diego, however, ranks 26th in slugging against Lynn's two favorite pitches from righties.
Typically mustering no more than a couple of runs in their most recent home games, the Padres are primed for another low-scoring output.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres today. Snell is enjoying a string of good starts, but they came against a ridiculously cold Cardinal lineup and against teams that match up well against him.
Chicago, however, ranks 10th in slugging against his pitches from lefties and is not suffering any kind of a scoreless streak like the Cardinals did when they saw Snell.
With your MLB picks, expect strong wins from the Blue Jays, Guardians, and White Sox.
Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your betting needs.
- Blue Jays RL -1.5 (+115)
- Guardians RL -1.5 (+100)
- White Sox ML (+146)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.