Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Best Bets for July 6

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Starting pitcher Mitch White #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws against the San Diego Padres. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images/AFP

Two spot starters make the Over a tasty MLB pick when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies – but who will win?

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Wednesday, July 06, 2022 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

You Win Some, You Lose Some

As your humble West Coast reporter, I’ve had the opportunity to cover the Los Angeles Dodgers for quite a while now. They’re pretty good. Then again, it’s always more fun when our MLB picks cash in, and sometimes, the Dodgers are our own worst enemy.

Take last Friday’s game between Los Angeles and the San Diego Padres. We had Over 7.5 here at the ranch, partly because of the warm weather, and partly because Blake Snell was pitching for San Diego. Alas, Snell only gave up one run in five innings, while L.A. starter Tony Gonsolin did the same through 7.2 innings of work. Final score: Padres 1, Dodgers 5. Nerts.

Rockies-Dodgers Series Finale in LA

There’s no crying in baseball. We’re back at Chavez Ravine this Wednesday for another National League West matchup between the Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies; this is the finale of a three-game set, and even though it’s getting late here in the Pacific Time Zone, the MLB odds for this contest have yet to be posted. We’ll do our best to get you set up anyway.

What’s Taking So Long?

We’re guessing this has to do with Colorado’s pitching rotation. No. 1 starter German Marquez (thumb) and No. 4 starter Antonio Senzatela (shoulder) have both been shelved recently, leaving a hole for Wednesday’s game that must be filled.

And here comes the fill-in. Word just came down the pipeline that Jose Ureña has been called up from AAA-Albuquerque for a spot start. This is... problematic for the Rockies. Ureña showed some promise with the Miami Marlins up until 2017, when he lost command of his pitches and finished the season tied for first with 17 hit batsmen.

Three teams later, Ureña is about to make his Rockies debut, and it’s going to be against the top hitting team on the senior circuit – according to the WAR charts at FanGraphs. And this will be after pitching just 21 innings at Albuquerque, where Ureña posted a 5.83 xFIP.  Woof.

Good News for the Rockies?

If there’s any good news for Colorado, it’s in their bullpen, which ranks No. 13 overall on the WAR charts and No. 10 during the past 30 days. But that’s about it. The Rockies can’t hit (No. 25), nor can they field (No. 26). They’re in big, big trouble with this matchup.

Who is Mitch White?

Okay, there’s one more piece of good news for Colorado: They don’t have to face Gonsolin, or anyone from L.A.’s regular rotation. Mitch White (3.93 xFIP) is getting a spot start, his seventh of the season. And to further complicate matters, White was supposed to start Tuesday’s game, but was bumped in favor of AAA-Oklahoma City call-up Ryan Pepiot.

Aside from having his routine disrupted, White looks like a pretty good option for the Dodgers. The Korean-American northpaw has moved steadily up the ranks since L.A. took him in the second round of the 2016 draft; White has a decent fastball-slider-curveball mix, although his curve doesn’t seem to be fooling too many people lately.

How Will White Fare on Wednesday?

As a spot starter, White probably won’t go beyond five innings Wednesday night, but the Dodgers have the fifth-ranked bullpen on the WAR charts, and they held the Padres scoreless last Thursday in a 3-1 victory, cashing in White supporters as -126 home faves and going well Under 8. Maybe those are the right MLB bets for this matchup as well.

What Happened to Craig Kimbrel?

What was that we were saying about the Dodgers bullpen? Their closer might be unavailable Wednesday; Kimbrel (3.01 xFIP) was drilled in the back Sunday by a line drive, and was due for a CT scan on Tuesday. This was after previous scans came up negative. Curious.

Also getting X-rayed: OF Chris Taylor (.728 OPS), who doesn’t look anything like the player that made the All-Star team last year. Injuries will do that to you – Taylor got his CT scan done Monday night and was diagnosed with a fracture in his left foot, so he’ll presumably be out a while.

How to Bet This Game

So there you have it: Another hot mess at Chavez Ravine to untangle. Everything will depend on how the baseball odds come out – and maybe Kimbrel’s scan results will have a minor impact on things. But given how poorly Ureña has pitched in recent years, and how potent the L.A. batting lineup is, we’re content to put out an early recommendation for both the Dodgers and the Over, for a classic favorite-Over parlay.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-168) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Dodgers -1.5 (-168)
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MLB Pick: Over 9 (-123) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 9 (-123)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.